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Morning Market Rap 02/11/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures flushed the RTH lows overnight, but bouncing back above currently 445.20 the corresponding futures low

449.44 the after hours high before futures opened

SPY 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation got underway quickly after the CPI report (downside gap filled), then accelerated after the Bullard comment on a .5% Fed fund hike. Bulls looking to play defense and find a daily "higher low" anywhere above 443.83 447.20 the low from yesterday and first support

445.22 next

444.01 the 200 day MA

443.83 the most important area for bulls to defend 451.61 the 150 day MA

457.71-458.12 wall of resistance at recent bounce highs

459.77 the 50 day MA

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also flushed the RTH lows overnight, also seeing a bounce back above those levels 354.50 the corresponding futures low

358.71 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation and lower gap filled, bulls looking to play defense and find the next daily "higher low" anywhere above 351.97 356.54 the low from yesterday and first support

351.97-352.80 next support area 360.08 the daily 12ema

366.49-366.81 the high(s) from the last 2 days and first resistance, rejecting just under the 200 day MA at 366.78

370.10 after that

IWM 3 months, daily candles Saw daily uptrend continuation here yesterday, followed by quick consolidation and the lower gap fill, after the CPI report/Bullard Fed hike comments. Watching to see if daily consolidation stays on the more bullish end and stays above the 12ema (202.07) 202.12 the low from yesterday and first support

202.07 daily 12ema

199.36 next

194.92 the last daily "higher low" and bulls looking to stay anywhere above that level to keep control of the daily uptrend 209.05 the high from yesterday and first resistance on this timeframe

212.14 the 50 day MA

Feb Vix 3 months, daily candles (this contract expires Tues., so next week I'll move onto the March contract; At that point 100% of the movement in long vol funds like VXX or UVXY will be dictated by the Mar. futures, with April creeping into the calculation each day afterward) Saw a big bounce off the lower end of the recent range, after the near full vol crush retrace of Januarys move; Seeing some upper wicks of selling today after some follow thru higher overnight. Watching today to see if this starts to back off, or starts to push higher again and has us looking at further broad market consolidation.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Brief peek below 20 on Wednesday, got scared and ramped back the other way yesterday after the CPI/Bullard induced market volatility 25.30 the high from today so far as the first area to watch for caution signs on the broad market

26.26 after that Futures little changed as market digests rate-hike narrative

11-Feb-22 07:57 ET

Market is Closed

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.80.

The S&P 500 futures trade roughly in-line with fair value as the market continues to digest expectations for the Fed to be more aggressive in tightening policy. The benchmark enters the session up 0.1% for the week.

After St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) said yesterday that he supported the Fed hike rates by 100 basis points by July 1 with one hike being 50 basis points, two other Fed members didn't sound as convinced. According to Bloomberg, San Francisco Fed President Daly (non-voter) said the half-point hike wasn't her preference while Richmond Fed President Barkin (non-voter) said he was simply "open to it conceptually."

Ms. Daly and Mr. Barkin are non-voting members in the FOMC this year, though, and the fed funds futures market is still expecting the Fed to hike rates by 50 basis points at the next meeting in March. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 77.3% probability of that happening, down from 93.8% yesterday.

The 2-yr yield, which spiked 22 basis points yesterday, is currently up one basis point to 1.57%. The 10-yr yield is down three basis points to 2.01%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 95.72. WTI crude futures are up 1.5%, or $1.36, to $91.24/bbl.

On the data front, investors will receive the preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for February ( consensus 67.5) at 10:00 a.m. ET. The report will include consumers' expectations for inflation.

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