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Morning Market Rap 01/31/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures trying to stay sideways up near Friday's bounce highs, as they test the highest levels we saw after last Monday's washout (pre Powell press conference) 443.15 the corresponding futures high

439.15 the corresponding futures low

SPY 3 months, daily candles Testing the 200 day MA from underneath, and the highest levels we've seen since last Monday's flush and reversal. Daily RSI has cooled off oversold readings, so there's certainly room for bears to push things back lower if we can't push thru that pre Powell press conference bounce high. 442 the high from Friday and first resistance

442.42 the 200 day MA

444.04 next, and important level for bulls to push thru to garner more confidence in this bounce being something more than a brief short term oversold one

448.06 after that

450.42 the 150 day MA 427.82 the low from Friday and first support on this timeframe

420.76 last Monday's lows after that

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures with a similar look - testing the bounce highs we saw before Powell's press conference 354.60 the corresponding futures high

350.72 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Oversold daily conditions have cooled after Friday's large bounce, bulls are looking for follow thru over last Wednesdays pre Powell presser highs. 352.02 the high from Friday, trading right there/a tad above for a possible small gap up open

356.88 (last Wednesday's highs) next key resistance

358.72 the declining daily 12ema, a push thru there would show more strength

362.18 after that

365.80 the flattening 200 day MA overhead 337.95 the low from Friday and first support on this timeframe

334.15 last Monday's low

IWM 3 months, daily candles Some hope for bulls Friday, as we saw last Monday's lows break with no follow thru and a quick reversal. Daily RSI has cooled off extreme OS conditions, so bulls would like to see follow thru today over Friday's highs, or risk an opening for bears to re-test Friday's lows/find more downside. 195.31 the high from Friday and first resistance

199.61 next

203.55 after that (pre Powell press conference highs from last Wed.) 188.09 Friday's low first support on this particular timeframe

Feb Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Still a potential daily bull flag look if the lows from last Thurs/Fri hold up, so far today those lows tested and held earlier

Concerning look for broad market bulls until we can test and break that 25.45 low we saw at the highest point of last Wednesday's bounce

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Concerning daily bull flag look remains here as well. Back below 30 but high 20s (currently pushing 29 again) is extremely elevated, and wide ranges and movement should be expected. Breaking below 26.90 would start to negate the bull flag look, and should provide a tailwind for the broad market, and a further sigh of relief for broad mkt bulls.

Futures dip on final day of January

31-Jan-22 07:59 ET

Market is Closed

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.80.

The S&P 500 futures trade six points, or 0.1%, below fair value on the final day of a turbulent month. The S&P 500 enters the session down 7.0% in January, versus 12% declines in the Nasdaq Composite (-12.0%) and Russell 2000 (-12.3%).

The market continues to factor in expectations for a more hawkish Fed after Atlanta Fed President Bostic (not a voting FOMC member) teased the idea of a 50-basis-point hike in an interview with the Financial Times. That's not a novel idea for the market, but it might be pressuring sentiment in these fragile times.

The 2-yr yield, which tracks expectations for the fed funds rate, is currently up three basis points to 1.20%. The 10-yr yield is up two basis points to 1.80%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 97.20. WTI crude futures are up 0.5% to 87.29% ahead of an OPEC+ meeting later this week.

The earnings and economic calendars are on the lighter side today, but the rest of the week should be more eventful. Today's data will be limited to the Chicago PMI for January ( consensus 62.5) at 9:45 a.m. ET.

Looking ahead, investors will receive the January ISM Manufacturing Index on Tuesday and the January Employment Situation report on Friday. In earnings, Alphabet (GOOG 2672.00, +6.21, +0.2%) will report on Tuesday, followed by Meta Platforms (FB 301.66, -0.05, unch) on Wednesday and (AMZN 2878.61, -0.95, unch) on Thursday.

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