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Morning Market Rap 01/28/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures attempted a bounce from the weak close; Topped out and now currently testing the futures low flush from last night, as we get closer and closer to the re-test of Monday's lows. Hourly not oversold yet, 4hr has room for more bear'n as well. 426.20 the corresponding futures low (so far, as we're currently flushing)

435.83 the after hours high before futures opened

SPY 3months, daily candles Hanging out under the 200 day MA and refusing any meaningful daily oversold bounce, as the RSI pushes deeper into oversold territory. 429.45 the low from yesterday, trading well under there now setting up for the gap down open

428.86, 427.15 lows from Wed and Tues also being broken here in pre mkt; Only the Monday lows remain now at

420.76 441.59 the highs from yesterday and first resistance on this timeframe (with plenty of hourly and 4hr resistance ahead of that)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures currently flushing/testing yesterdays futures lows with a slight break, no follow thru so far on it's first 5min/15min oversold bounce attempt. Hourly and 4hr RSI still not oversold. 337.30 the futures low so far

345.73 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Hanging out well under the 200 day MA here as well as daily RSI pushes further into oversold territory - more oversold than the Covid lows. 340.05 the low from yesterday, trading under there currently for the gap down open

334.15 Monday lows last major support before we start searching for lower levels of support 351.27 first resistance on this timeframe with hourly, 4hr resistance ahead of that

IWM 5 days, hourly candles First major index to break Monday's lows as it sets up for the gap down open. Hourly RSI close to oversold, 4hr close.

IWM 3yr daily candles Free falling thru the volume profile with lack of any meaningful support being a problem. Daily RSI 25ish, Covid lows saw it hit 17ish.

170ish the spot where we broke out from in the fall of '20, so maybe ultimately needing to go all the way back there. You wouldn't think it happens in a straight line... Bulls best hope for today is to see a break of the Monday lows w/out much follow thru and a quick move back the other way.

IWM 3yr weekly candles Getting closer to oversold conditions but still not quite there. Covid saw the weekly RSI get to 16-17ish; We're currently just above 30.

Feb Vix futures 3months, daily candles Still off yesterdays highs even with this broad market futures weakness; Watching today to see if they reject from there. If they get thru, recent highs next, which would probably need the broad market testing/breaking Monday's lows to see higher levels. It gets very hard to maintain vol levels this high without constant new lows and a free falling market.

Spot Vix 3months, daily candles Refusing to back off meaningfully still and looking like a daily bull flag. Testing the highs from the last few days. 32.82 todays high so far

33 was Thurs. high

33.04 was Wed. high

35.85 was Tues. high 38.94 was Monday's high Futures slip in front of key inflation data; Apple rises on earnings news

28-Jan-22 08:00 ET

Market is Closed

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -37.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -134.50.The S&P 500 futures trade 37 points, or 0.9%, below fair value as the downside volatility persists in front of key inflation data. Apple (AAPL 163.09, +3.87, +2.4%) is providing offsetting support for the futures market following its better-than-expected earnings report.

Specifically, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation in the PCE Price Index ( consensus +0.4%) will be included in the Personal Income ( consensus +0.5%) and Spending ( consensus +0.5%) report for December at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The Treasury market is sniffing a hot report, which should support the case for the Fed to be more assertive in tightening policy to rein in inflation. The 2-yr yield is up three basis points to 1.22%, and the 10-yr yield is up three basis points to 1.84%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 97.37. WTI crude is up 0.7% to $87.18/bbl.

Back to earnings, Apple, in addition to beating top and bottom-line estimates, said it expects Q2 revenue growth to be "solid" but below the 11.3% growth rate in the December quarter. Visa (V 213.40, +7.26, +3.5%) and Caterpillar (CAT 208.04, -4.13, -2.0%) also topped EPS estimates but not Chevron (CVX 130.95, -4.42, -3.3%).

Separately, Russia-Ukraine concerns remain in the mix. President Biden told Ukrainian President Zelenskyy that a Russian invasion is "virtually certain" when ground freezes over and he should "prepare for impact," according to CNN.

In other data, the Q4 Employment Cost Index will be released alongside the PCE Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for January ( consensus 68.8) at 10:00 a.m. ET.

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