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Market Rap 12/23/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures traded mostly sideways, around the highs of yesterday afternoon's bounce 379.61 the corresponding futures low

382.42 the pre mkt high

SPY 3 months, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles Bounce failed right at the 50 day MA (blue) on Wednesday to form a bear flag; with confirmation of that bear flag yesterday, and a new confirmed daily downtrend. A decent sized lower wick by the close has bulls hoping we don't see any follow thru today. (support)

374.77 the low from yesterday

368.79-370 important weekly support as we look for a weekly "higher low" (resistance)

386.21 the high from yesterday

387.41 the last "lower high" and spot for bulls to get thru to negate this new daily downtrend

387.51 the 50 day MA

387.89 small open gap

388.60 the falling 12ema (white)

391.38 the 150 day MA (orange)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures similar look, sideways around the top of yesterdays late afternoon bounce 268.23 the pre mkt high

265.82 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles Bear flag confirmation into a new daily downtrend here as well, as it starts to probe the lower range from this year. (support)

262.46 the low from yesterday

259.08 important weekly support in the search for a weekly "higher low" (resistance)

270.51 the high from yesterday

274.78 the new daily "lower high" and spot the bulls will need to get over to break the downtrend

276.38 the declining daily 12ema (white)

278.37 the 50 day MA (blue)

January Vix futures 3 months, daily candles A big response to the extreme weakness we saw in broad market equities yesterday with a surge/test of the recent highs, before pulling back again

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Big bounce off the 20 psychological support area [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +10.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +39.80.The S&P 500 futures are up 8 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 31 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 79 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The equity futures market indicates a modestly higher open coming off yesterday's retreat, waiting on some key economic data at 8:30 a.m. ET. Today marks the official start of the so-called Santa Claus rally period, which includes the last five sessions of the year and the first two sessions of the new year. Airlines canceled thousands of flights due to the winter storm ahead of the year-end holidays, according to CNBC. The House will vote on the $1.7 trillion government funding bill today, where it is expected to pass, according to CNBC. China estimates 37 million residents per day getting infected with COVID, according to Bloomberg. Japan's core CPI was up 3.7% yr/yr in the November reading, increasing at its fastest pace since early 1982. Market participants will receive the following U.S. data releases today:

  • 8:30 ET: November Personal Income ( consensus 0.3%; prior 0.7%), Personal Spending ( consensus 0.1%; prior 0.8%), PCE Prices ( consensus 0.2%; prior 0.3%), and core PCE Prices ( consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%), November Durable Orders ( consensus -1.0%; prior 1.0%), Durable Orders ex-transportation ( consensus 0.1%; prior 0.5%)

  • 10:00 ET: November New Home Sales ( consensus 600,000; prior 632,000) and final December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey ( consensus 59.1; prior 59.1)

Treasury yields are inching higher ahead of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index and core- PCE Price Index. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.28% and the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.71%. In corporate news:

  • Nutanix (NTNX 23.40, -4.52, -16.2%): weakness attributed to speculation that Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is losing interest in acquiring the company

  • Apple (AAPL 132.36, +0.13, +0.1%): workers in Australia go on strike, according to Reuters

  • Meta (META 117.65, +0.53, +0.5%): will pay $725 mln to settle privacy lawsuit, according to Bloomberg

  • Tesla (TSLA 126.99, +1.64, +1.3%): CEO Elon Musk says in interview that he will not sell Tesla shares for 18-24 months and buybacks will depend on economy, according to WSJ

  • Mission Produce (AVO 12.57, -2.04, -14.0%): misses by $0.23, misses on revs as prices declined rapidly; expects more normal marketplace in 2023

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