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Market Rap 12/21/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures peeking thru yesterdays highs 383.22 the pre mkt high

380.28 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened

SPY 3 months, daily candles Mondays low broke by a tad yesterday before seeing a tepid bounce; "Lower high" every day for the last 5 days, the bulls will need to break that pattern and get over the high of yesterday/close over, before any daily bounce can get underway. Futures shaping up for a small gap up open, so a bit of a head start on that goal so far. Plenty of work and resistance overhead after that, with the 50 day MA (blue) and 12ema (white) looming above. (support)

377.85 the low from yesterday

373.61

368.79 (resistance)

382.23 the high from yesterday - trading a tad above there currently for the gap up open possibility

383.82

386.45 that 50 day MA

386.58 before the small open gap at

387.89

390.73 that 12ema

391.48 the 150 day MA (orange)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures testing yesterdays highs 271.68 the corresponding futures high

270.05 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened

QQQ 3 months, daily candles "Lower high" here for the past 5 days in a row as well, first step for the bulls will be to break that pattern. Yesterdays low rested on the bottom of that volume profile shelf, so we'll see if the bulls can muster a defensive effort off that, and get a daily bounce going. Lots of resistance overhead and wood to chop after that.

(support)

266.95 yesterdays low

263.03

259.08

(resistance)

271.32 the high from yesterday, bulls looking to challenge that level first thing

273.96

277.77

278.08 the 50 day MA (blue)

278.98 the 12ema (white)

Jan. Vix futures 3 months daily candles Daily consolidation of this recent bounce has been underway since Friday, right alongside the broad market continuing the decline. Heading back to test the recent lows, so we'll see if the easing can provide any support to a broad market bounce.

Whether due to seasonality or other factors, the action here has been pretty disjointed the past couple months it seems.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Heading back to test the psychological 20 area once again, right along with the continued weakness in the broad market.

Not sure if we should take that as a tell that a bigger downturn in the broad market isn't in the cards in the very short term; Or as a worrying sign that something is not "working" the traditional way.

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +26.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +49.50.The S&P 500 futures are up 25 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 44 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 266 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value. The futures for the main indices, especially the Dow, are getting a boost today as market participants react positively to earnings reports from Nike (NKE) FedEx (FDX). Some speculative buying interest following large losses this month also offers a measure of support to the equity futures market. The Senate passed a procedural measure on the $1.7 trillion government funding bill. A final Senate vote could happen later today, according to Politico. Ukraine's President Zelenskyy is visiting Washington DC today to meet with President Biden and speak in front of Congress. Treasury yields are moving lower this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down six basis points to 4.21% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.66%. Energy complex futures are on the rise. WTI crude oil futures are up 2.3% to $77.97/bbl and natural gas futures are up 2.8% to $5.47/mmbtu. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 0.9% with refinancing applications jumping 6.0% while purchase applications fell 0.1%. Other data releases today include:

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Q3 Current Account Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$224.0B; prior -$251.1B)

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: December Consumer Confidence (Briefing.com consensus 101.0; prior 100.2)

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: November Existing Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 4.20M; prior 4.43M)

  • 10:30 a.m. ET: Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior +10.23M)

In corporate news:

  • FedEx (FDX 171.21, +6.86, +4.2%): beats by $0.36, misses on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, reduces capital spending outlook by $400 mln; expects to generate FY23 cost savings of approx. $3.7 bln

  • NIKE (NKE 114.83, +11.62, +11.3%): beats by $0.20, beats on revs, gross margin down 300 bps, which is better than its prior guidance of down 350-400 bps; North America up 30%, Greater China down 3%; guides FY23 revs to grow low teens in cc, up from low double-digits

  • Starbucks (SBUX 96.79, -1.21, -1.2%): downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies

  • Workday (WDAY 169.73, -2.36, -1.4%): announces appointment of Carl Eschenbach to co-CEO, effective immediately; Chano Fernandez has stepped down as co-CEO and as a member of the board of directors

  • Tesla (TSLA 139.55, +1.75, +1.3%): CEO Elon Musk says "I will resign as CEO (of Twitter) as soon as I find someone foolish enough to take the job! After that, I will just run the software & servers teams"; aiming to implement a hiring freeze and announce layoffs, according to Electrek

  • Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB 14.10, -0.33, -2.3%): lowers Q4 guidance due to the impact from Hurricane Nicole and due to weaker business and leisure demand during second half of November

  • Six Flags (SIX 22.41, +1.49, +7.1%): 3% shareholder Land & Buildings issues presentation highlighting opportunity to unlock substantial real estate value


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