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Market Rap 12/16/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures flushed thru the lows from yesterday. Hourly and 4hr RSI now oversold. 382.50 the pre mkt low

389.93 the after hours high from yesterday, before futures opened

SPY 3 months, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles Daily range decisively broke bearish yesterday, as weekly consolidation gets underway. Lower open daily gaps coming into view. 368.79 an important weekly support to watch if we dont bounce before there. Zooming in to the shorter timeframes, the hourly and 4hr RSI are now oversold; some type of bounce to cool off that condition is a reasonable trade to be scouting.

Gap down open ahead. (support)

387.89 the low from yesterday - trading well under there currently for that gap down open set up

385.50 the 50 day MA (blue) - also trading under that level here in pre mkt

381.14 fills the open gap


368.79 (resistance)

391.92 the 150 day MA (orange) back overhead

395.25 the high from yesterday

396.31 open gap

396.97 the daily 12ema (white)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also flushed under yesterdays range, with that oversold hourly/4hr bounce getting going here a bit early, and potentially taking any gap down open off the table 273.39 the pre mkt low

277.73 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles Daily range decisively broke bearish yesterday as weekly consolidation begins. Closed under the 50 day MA (blue), which had held up as support for the past month and a half. (support)

275.67 the low from yesterday - trading right around there currently

273.85 last support before we get into the

268.56 open gap


259.08 last important weekly pivot support before the years lows come into view at

254.26 (resistance)

278.11 50 day MA back overhead

283.01 the high from yesterday

284.22 the daily 12ema

Dec. Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Big bounce yesterday that has us testing the Dec/late Nov. highs 23.20 the high from today so far

23.46 the 12/13 high

23.65 the 11/28 highs This contract expires on Tuesday so starting next week we'll move onto the January Vix futures contract.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Bounced yesterday into the middle of the 12/13 range. The action here has seemed disjointed and choppy, as the market tried to price in CPI/FOMC ahead of the known event; and is now digesting that, with the last major fundamental events of the year out of the way. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -42.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -78.80.The S&P 500 futures are down 39 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 67 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down points and are trading 1.0% below fair value. The downside bias continues on this quadruple witching options expiration day amid ongoing growth concerns. Stock prices are being undercut by worries about earnings estimates being too high. There is also likely an element of disappointment in play connected to the poor performance thus far during a historically strong period for the market. The Treasury market trades in mixed fashion. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.24% and the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.49%. Energy complex futures are moving lower this morning. WTI crude oil futures are down 2.2% to $74.45/bbl and natural gas futures are down 5.8% to $6.57/mmbtu. Economic data today will be limited to the preliminary December IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (prior 47.7) and Services PMI (prior 46.2) at 9:45 a.m. ET. In corporate news:

  • Darden Restaurants (DRI 144.75, +1.89, +1.3%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; Q2 comps +7.3%; raises FY23 EPS, revenue, and comp guidance

  • Accenture (ACN 273.85, -7.27, -2.6%): beats by $0.15, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS in-line, reaffirms FY23 revs guidance

  • Maxar Technologies (MAXR 51.50, +28.40, +122.9%): confirms it will be acquired by Advent Int'l for $6.4 bln, or $53/share in cash

  • Winnebago (WGO 57.08, +1.33, +2.4%): beats by $0.28, beats on revs

  • Novavax (NVAX 9.97, -1.35, -11.9%): priced public offering to sell 6,500,000 shares of its common stock at $10.00/share.

  • Adobe (ADBE 343.56, +14.85, +4.5%): beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides FebQ EPS above consensus, revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance, revs guidance

  • Meta Platforms (META 118.28, +2.13, +1.8%): upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan

  • U.S. Steel (X 23.85, +0.21, +0.9%): guides Q4 EPS above consensus

  • Steel Dynamics (STLD 100.34, -1.58, -1.6%): guides Q4 adjusted EPS well above consensus; profitability from steel operations to be lower sequentially, metals recycling operations to moderately improve, steel fabrication operations to be steady

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