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Market Rap 12/15/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke the low from yesterday 394.88 the pre mkt low

400.75 the corresponding futures high from yesterday evening

SPY 3 months, daily candles Bearish reaction following the FOMC/Powell presser, and closed back below the 200 day MA (purple). Pierced but closed above the 12ema, and we're back below it in pre market action; as we shape up for a small gap down open. Daily tightening range between Decembers highs and lows in play. (support)

396.31 the low from yesterday, trading just below there currently for the potential gap down open

393.15-393.41

391.94 the 150 day MA (orange)

391.64-391.97 the recent lows, push thru there with some follow thru, and the daily tightening range breaks bearish (resistance)

398.30 the 12ema back overhead

402.35 the 200 day MA back overhead

405.50

410.49 the recent high, push thru there with some follow thru, and the daily tightening range breaks bullish

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also broke the lows from yesterday, but currently sneaking back above 282.45 the pre mkt low

287.50 the corresponding futures high from yesterday evening

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Yesterdays highs failed at the 150 day MA (orange) and then pierced thru the 12ema (white) but closed just above there; Back below in pre mkt action.

Daily tightening range between Dec. highs and Dec. lows in play. (support)

283.19 the low from yesterday

281.16

279.79

278.78 the Dec. low, break that w some follow thru and this tightening range breaks bearish

278.21 the 50 day MA (blue) (resistance)

285.55 the 12ema back overhead

291.41 the high from yesterday

291.59 the 150 day MA

296.88 the Dec. high, break that with some follow thru and this tightening range breaks bullish

Dec. Vix futures 3 months, daily candles New lows found yesterday, some bounce so far today back up into the middle of the range

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles A brief surge following the FOMC was quickly reversed by close, as we head back down to test that 20 psychological level

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -35.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -129.80.The S&P 500 futures are down 35 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 134 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 237 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. Equity futures trade with a negative bias after a litany of other banks joined the Fed in raising rates this week. The Bank of England raised its bank rate by 50 bps, as expected, to 3.50%, the Swiss National Bank raised its policy rate by 50 bps to 1.00%, Norges Bank raised its rate by 25 bps to 2.75%, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised its rate by 50 bps to 4.75%, as expected. The European Central Bank is expected to announce a 50-bps rate hike of its own at 8:15 ET. Separately, China reported weaker than expected November Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Fixed Asset Investment data. So, some of the weakness this morning could be attributed to lingering concerns about central banks raising rates into a deteriorating global economic environment and the adverse impact for earnings growth. Treasury yields are pulling back somewhat. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.23% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.47%. Market participants have a heavy slate of economic data today that includes:

  • 8:30 ET: November Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior 1.3%), Retail Sales ex-auto (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 1.3%), weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 227,000; prior 230,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.671 mln), December Philadelphia Fed Survey (Briefing.com consensus -10.0; prior -19.4), and December Empire State Manufacturing survey (Briefing.com consensus -1.0; prior 4.5)

  • 9:15 ET: November Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; prior -0.1%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 80.0%; prior 79.9%)

  • 10:00 ET: October Business Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.4%)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -21 bcf)

  • 16:00 ET: October net Long-Term TIC Flows (prior $118.00 bln)

In corporate news:

  • Western Digital (WDC 34.10, -1.73, -4.8%): downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs

  • AT&T (T 18.66, -0.24, -1.3%): downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley

  • Verizon (VZ 37.76, +0.31, +0.8%): upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley

  • Tesla (TSLA 154.69, -2.11, -1.4%): indicated lower after CEO Elon Musk disclosed the sale of 21,995,000 shares worth more than ~$3.5 bln (transaction dates were 12/12 - 12/14)

  • Fidelity Nat'l Info (FIS 74.12, +1.71, +2.4%): incoming CEO and Board commence review to strengthen performance and drive value creation

  • Novavax (NVAX 15.40, -1.83, -10.6%): announces $125 mln convertible notes offering; co also announces a $125 mln public offering for its common stock; reaffirms FY22 revs guidance

  • American Express (AXP 151.66, -2.45, -1.6%) BofA named a top pick

  • Nordson (NDSN 240.00, +4.09, +1.7%): beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides JanQ EPS below consensus, revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Lennar (LEN 88.36, -2.46, -2.7%): beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line; expects new orders and deliveries of 12,000-13,500 in FebQ; deliveries of 60,000-65,000 in FY23


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