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Market Rap 12/14/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures trading sideways in the lower third of yesterdays range, ahead of the FOMC rate decision at 2et 403.64 the corresponding futures high 401.09 the pre mkt low

Massive gap up open right at the recent 12/1 highs, followed by a big pullback and a near gap fill, along with a close just under the 200 day MA (purple), but above the 12ema (white). More wild moves anticipated after the FOMC decision at 2et, and Powell presser at 2:30et.(resistance)

402.50 the 200 day MA

410.49 yesterdays high (support)

399.07 yesterdays low

398.95 officially fills the open gap

398.10 the 12ema


391.89 the 150 day MA (orange)

391.64 the recent low (edited)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also going sideways in the lower third of yesterdays range 290 the corresponding futures high

287.81 the pre mkt low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Massive gap up and push thru recent resistance from 12/1, followed by a massive pullback and near gap fill. (resistance)

291.63 the 150 day MA (orange)

296.65 the high from yesterday (support)

285.91 the low from yesterday

285.64 fills the open gap

285.37 the 12ema (white)


278.13 the 50 day MA (blue)

278.78 the recent lows

Dec. Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Big flush following the CPI release. Watching today for the FOMC reaction.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles The big discrepancy between this and the Dec. Vix futures closed yesterday following the CPI release

$DXY 3 months, daily candles New lows yesterday after consistently failing to get back thru the 200 day MA (purple). Hanging out near those lows today as the daily RSI gets close to oversold territory.

TLT 3 months, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles Daily overbought RSI has cooled off and the new daily "higher low" is set at 106.27, just above the 12ema (white). Watching to see how much whippage we get following FOMC. Weekly consolidation of this move off the October bottom so far is still being resisted. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 5 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 40 points and are trading slightly below fair value. Equity futures trade mixed and little changed from their flat lines as market participants await the FOMC decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, which will be accompanied by an updated Summary of Economic Projections. Fed Chair Powell will give a press conference shortly after at 2:30 p.m. ET. The market is expecting the FOMC to agree to a 50 basis point rate hike, bringing the target range for the fed funds rate to 4.25-4.50%. Congress reached a framework on the omnibus spending package that will fund the government through September 30. The House will vote on a one week continuing resolution today to give the Senate more time to vote on the full ominous package, according to The Wall Street Journal. China will stop counting coronavirus cases without symptoms and accelerate vaccinations, according to FT. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 3.2% following a 1.9% decline last week, with purchase applications up 4.0% and refinancing applications up 3.0%. Other data out today includes:

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: November Import Prices (prior -1.9%), Import Prices ex-oil (prior -0.2%), Export Prices (prior -0.1%), Export Prices ex-ag. (prior -0.3%)

  • 10:30 a.m. ET: Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior -5.19M)

In corporate news:

  • Delta Air Lines (DAL 34.82, +1.44, +4.3%): raises Q4 EPS guidance; narrows Q4 revenue guidance; sees FY23 EPS and revs above consensus; sees FY24 EPS above consensus

  • Lennar (LEN 91.40, +0.81, +0.9%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays

  • Plug Power (PLUG 14.64, +0.53, +3.8%): USB initiated coverage with a Buy rating

  • Tesla (TSLA 159.49, -1.46, -0.9%): price target lowered to $235 from $305 at Goldman Sachs, according to CNBC; investors are concerned about CEO Elon Musk's focus on Twitter, according to WSJ

  • Braze (BRZE 27.26, -1.64, -5.7%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides JanQ EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Best Buy (BBY 81.72, -2.35, -2.8%): downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities

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