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Market Rap 12/09/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke thru yesterdays highs 398.42 the pre mkt high so far

395.70 the corresponding futures low

SPY 3 months, daily candles Daily bounce underway as the doji candle from Wednesday confirmed as a reversal. Next step for bulls will be to see follow thru today, and avoid a daily bear flag with a push higher over the 12ema (white). (resistance)

397.36 the high from yesterday - trading a bit above there currently as the gap up open shapes up (PPI numbers ahead at 8:30 et so that could shake things up a bit)

397.82 that 12ema, also currently above it by a small amount


403.04 the 200 day MA (purple) (support)

393.27 the low from yesterday

391.99 the 150 day MA (orange)

391.64-391.97 - bulls want to avoid breaking below here as bears would confirm a new daily downtrend

390.14 after that


382.67 the 50 day MA (blue)

381.14 fills the gap

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also broke thru yesterdays highs 285.92 the pre mkt high so far

283.40 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Bulls played some tremendous defense the last 2 days, and held above the daily uptrend area with a reversal doji confirmation yesterday. Now they need to go on offense and push thru the 12ema (white) as this daily bounce gets underway. (resistance)

284.84 the high from yesterday - trading above there currently for the gap up open set up

285.10 that 12ema, also trading a bit above there currently

287.62 after that


291.97 the 150 day MA (orange)


295.75 (support)

279.79 the low from yesterday

278.78 the area to stay above and avoid confirming a new daily downtrend

277.25 the 50 day MA (blue)

273.85 after that

268.56 fills the gap

Dec. Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Backed off at Wednesdays highs yesterday, testing/starting to peek thru yesterdays low currently. This seeing a Friday vol crush lower under yesterdays lows would be enough to keep the broad market daily bounce going.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles This backed off a tad yesterday after making new recent highs in the morning. The recent bounce is mostly holding up tho (was pretty oversold and due for some mean reversion), so thats a caution flag and something to keep an eye on. Playing it tight so far today in the middle of yesterdays range.

$DXY 3 months, daily candles Another failure at the 200 day MA (purple) and heading back to test the recent lows

TLT 1year, daily candles A massive 20% bounce off the late October lows here (massive for a treasury instrument, anyways) in a little over a month now has the daily RSI clicking into overbought territory. The first time since the summer of '21.

Back to the area it broke down from in September when it couldn't hold the previous June 16th lows. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +22.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +84.00.The S&P 500 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 77 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 123 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. There is a slightly positive bias in front of the November Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 a.m. ET this morning amid some possible speculation that the PPI number will be favorable, setting a positive tone for the November Consumer Price Index next Tuesday. Gains for the mega cap stocks in premarket action have also proved to be a supportive element. On a related note, Goldman Sachs named Microsoft (MSFT) a top pick for 2023. China's Consumer Price Index reflected disinflation in November (+1.6% year-over-year versus +2.1% prior). The IMF and the World Bank expressed concerns about the global economic outlook, according to Bloomberg. Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced she's leaving the Democratic party and registering as an independent. UK passport control staff and railroad workers are planning a series of walkouts over December, according to CNBC. Treasury yields are moving lower. The 2-yr note yield is down five basis points to 4.27% and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.48%. In corporate news:

  • Microsoft (MSFT 248.31, +0.91, +0.4%): named a top pick for 2023 by Goldman Sachs

  • Netflix (NFLX 318.75, +8.49, +2.7%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo

  • Costco (COST 479.00, -2.42, -0.5%): misses by $0.06, misses on revs

  • Vail Resorts (MTN 255.46, +4.25, +1.7%): misses by $0.11, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 net income guidance and resort reported EBITDA guidance

  • Broadcom (AVGO 553.00, +21.92, +4.1%): beats by $0.16, reports revs in-line; guides JanQ revs above consensus; will resume authorized share repurchases for remaining $13 bln; increasing quarterly dividend 12% to $4.60/share

  • RH (RH 270.10, +3.72, +1.4%): beats by $0.97, beats on revs; raises low end of FY23 revenue growth guidance range, raises adj. operating margin guidance

  • Vale S.A. (VALE 16.75, +0.32, +2.0%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley

  • DocuSign (DOCU 48.63, +4.88, +11.2%): beats by $0.15, beats on revs, beats on billings; guides Q4 revs slightly below consensus; Billings rose 17% yr/yr to $659.4 mln vs $584-594 mln prior guidance.

  • lululemon athletica (LULU 349.15, -25.36, -6.8%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs, comps of +22%; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs in-line; expects to double net revs to $12.5 bln by 2026

  • Bath & Body Works (BBWI 43.91, +1.76, +4.2%): Third Point discloses 6.02% stake per 13D filing

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