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Market Rap 12/07/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures oversold hourly bounce attempt stalled when pre mkt trading opened, now breaking the lows from yesterday 395 the pre mkt high

390.99 the pre mkt low so far

SPY 3 months, daily candles Convincingly flushed the 12ema (white) and starting to crack thru the last daily "higher low" area from 11/29, as the daily uptrend gets lost by bulls. On the shorter term timeframes the hourly is oversold again, along with the 4hr, so theres a decent chance of some type of oversold bounce attempt today; just looking for lower highs off that bounce. (support)

391.64 the low from yesterday, trading a bit under there currently for a small gap down open set up

390.14 an interesting area to watch and look for that shorter term oversold bounce somewhere around

385.64 after that

381.56 the 50 day MA (blue)

381.14 open gap (resistance)

392.35 150 day MA (orange) back overhead

399 the 12ema

399.99 the high from yesterday

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq losing yesterdays lows as well 278.40 the pre mkt low so far

282.59 the corresponding futures bounce high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Flushed the 12ema (white) and headed to test the last daily "higher low" area from 11/29 first thing today. Shorter term RSI's like the hourly, 4hr are oversold so reasonable to be looking for some type of trade-able bounce around that level / above the 50 day MA.(support)

280.26 the low from yesterday so a small gap down open shaping up

279.17 that last "higher low" level from 11/29

277.05 the 50 day MA (blue)


268.56 open gap


286.20 that 12ema

287.62 the high from yesterday

Dec. Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Daily bounce underway and gained some momentum yesterday with a push thru the 12ema (white) 23.55-23.65 the last daily "higher low" area to be watching next

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Daily "oversold" bounce continues here, as we start to peek over late Nov. levels

$DXY 3 months, daily candles Gravitating back around the 200 day MA (purple) but struggling with that level

TLT 3 months, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles This stayed strong yesterday as rates backed off, which is different than what we've seen most of the year. Generally risk off in the broad market was coming BECAUSE of higher interest rates (TLT selling off). Back to testing the recent highs in the context of this daily uptrend. Weekly oversold bounce continues, and we've now retraced about half of the relentless selling from the August thru October stretch. Weekly pushed convincingly thru its 12ema last week. This weekly is coming straight off the lows with no pivot, so whenever this move tops out and weekly consolidation begins, we'll be looking for that weekly "higher low" anywhere above THE lows from October.

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -26.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -120.30.The S&P 500 futures are down 27 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 128 points and are trading 1.0% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 153 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. Equity futures are sporting losses after yesterday's retreat. Global growth concerns are still at the forefront after China reported bigger than expected decreases in imports and exports for November. Mega caps are trading down in premarket action, with acute weakness in Tesla (TSLA) following reports the company is offering more subsidies to Chinese buyers. China removed most coronavirus testing and quarantine requirements and reduced authority for local officials to shutdown city blocks, according to The Wall Street Journal. Democrat Raphael Warnock won the run off Senate election in Georgia, giving Democrats a 51-49 advantage in the Senate. The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index fell 1.9% versus a 0.8% decline last week. Other economic data out today includes:

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Revised Q3 Productivity ( consensus 0.3%; prior 0.3%) and Unit Labor Costs ( consensus 3.5%; prior 3.5%)

  • 10:30 a.m. ET: Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior -12.58 million barrels)

  • 3:00 p.m. ET: October Consumer Credit ( consensus $26.5 billion; prior $25.0 billion)

In corporate news:

  • MongoDB (MDB 182.00, +37.31, +25.8%): beats by $0.40, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Airbnb (ABNB 89.10, -4.02, -4.3%) : downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

  • Tesla (TSLA 174.77, -5.05, -2.8%): offers China buyers more subsidies, according to Bloomberg; Analyst Toni Sacconaghi reiterated his underperform rating

  • Mastercard (MA 347.00, -0.53, -0.2%): announces 16% increase in quarterly dividend to $0.57/share; also announces $9.0 bln share repurchase program

  • Toll Brothers (TOL 45.70, -0.24, -0.5%): beats by $1.69, beats on revs, guides for FY23 deliveries of 8,000-9,000

  • Lowe's (LOW 201.01, -0.90, -0.5%): reaffirms FY outlook; announces new $15 bln share repurchase program

  • Campbell Soup (CPB 54.49, +1.50, +2.8%): beats by $0.15, beats on revs; raises FY23 guidance

  • Thor Industries (THO 88.00, +4.00, +4.8%): beats by $0.71, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Guidewire Software (GWRE 59.00, +2.48, +4.4%): beats by $0.27, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs in-line; guides FY23 revs in-line

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