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Market Rap 12/02/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures spent their time going sideways in the middle of yesterdays range 407.69 the pre mkt high

406.01 the corresponding futures low

SPY 6 months, daily candles Yesterdays gap up was filled quickly after the open, as we digest that massive move from Wednesday. Another close above the 200 day MA (purple). (resistance)

410 the high from yesterday

411.73

413-414ish some volume profile resistance

419.96 (support)

404.75 the low from yesterday

403.94 the 200 day MA

398.75 the 12ema (white)

393.30-393.48 the last daily "higher low" area and spot for the bulls to stay anywhere above whenever daily consolidation of this move begins

392.63 the 150 day MA (orange)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also went sideways in the middle of yesterdays range 293.78 the pre mkt high

292.17 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Indecision doji candle put in yesterday as the massive move from Wednesday gets digested.(resistance)

295.75 the high from yesterday

296-297 area the last volume profile resistance before it thins out up to the

305.65 200 day MA (purple) and the gap fill at

308.18 (support)

293.08 the 150 day MA (orange)

290.88 the low from yesterday

285.88 the 12ema (white)

279.97 Wednesdays low

279.17 the last daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to stay anywhere above whenever daily consolidation begins

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Indecision doji candle put in yesterday as the massive move from Wednesday gets digested.(resistance)

295.75 the high from yesterday

296-297 area the last volume profile resistance before it thins out up to the

305.65 200 day MA (purple) and the gap fill at

308.18 (support)

293.08 the 150 day MA (orange)

290.88 the low from yesterday

285.88 the 12ema (white)

279.97 Wednesdays low

279.17 the last daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to stay anywhere above whenever daily consolidation begins

Dec. Vix futures 3 months, daily candles New lows yesterday as we push "oversold" RSI readings again on the daily


Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Back to the psychological 20 area test

19.12 the low from August the next level to watch if we break underneath

$DXY 3 months, daily candles Lost the 200 day MA decisively yesterday, now testing/starting to peek under the August lows as the massive move from this year continues unwinding

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 2 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 14 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 35 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. There's a mixed disposition in the equity futures market. Moves are modest as participants await the employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET. China is suggesting it will take "baby steps" to move away from its zero-COIVD policy, according to the Washington Post. EU governments have tentatively agreed on a $60/barrel price cap on Russian oil, according to Reuters. This comes amid speculation that OPEC+ will consider production cuts ahead of its meeting early next week. The eurozone reported a welcome weaker-than-expected October PPI (-2.9% month-over-month), but PPI is still up 30.8% on a year-over-year basis. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 104.44. Treasury yields continue to pullback. The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.20% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.51%. In corporate news:

  • Marvell (MRVL 43.11, -2.29, -5.0%): misses by $0.02, misses on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Ambarella (AMBA 72.15, -1.78, -2.4%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 revs below consensus

  • Ulta Beauty (ULTA 479.99, +.746, +1.5%): beats by $1.21, beats on revs, comps of +14.6%; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus, raises comp guidance

  • Zscaler (ZS 131.05, -13.45, -9.3%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; but disappointed with billings growth guidance

  • Smartsheet (SMAR 36.40, +3.89, +12.0%): beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Veeva Systems (VEEV 184.30, -7.12, -3.7%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • PagerDuty (PD 24.25, +1.73, +7.7%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Asana (ASAN 15.55, -2.53, -14.0%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • UiPath (PATH 14.54, +1.62, +12.5%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus

  • Credit Suisse (CS 3.3300, +0.24, +7.8%): Chairman Axel Lehmann says liquidity situation is improving, according to Bloomberg interview

The release of November's non-farms payroll report at 8:30 a.m. ET is expected to show that jobs growth is continuing to slow as the Fed's aggressive rate hike path starts to rein in consumer and business spending. Economists expect 200K jobs will be added during the month, down from 261K in October, while the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 3.7%, near a 50-year low. Some other recent economic reports back up the expectation for a slower increase in jobs - the ADP November report, October JOLTS, and an increased number of firing announcements. Quote: "As high-profile layoffs surge through the U.S. tech industry, the broader private sector is still creating jobs, but at a slower pace, while job openings are still high," said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. "These factors imply that the Federal Reserve's tightening campaign is helping to slow the economy and inflation, but the challenging war against increasing prices is far from over." Indeed, traders don't see the Fed pivoting anytime soon, though, as Fed officials have been indicating, they're betting on smaller rate hikes going forward. The CME FedWatch Tool puts a 75.8% probability on a 50 basis point increase at the Dec. 13-14 Fed meeting, down from the 75 bps hikes at each of the past four meetings. For the February meeting, traders see a 48.2% probability of a 25-bp hike and put the odds of a 50-bp hike at 43.0%. Inflation watch: Workers' average hourly earnings are expected to increase 4.6% Y/Y, easing from the 4.7% increase in October, both below current inflation rates. Core PCE, a key gauge the Fed watches, rose 5.0% Y/Y in October, in the most recent inflation report, still more than double the central bank's 2% target. As inflationary pressures from supply bottlenecks and commodity prices ease, "wage increases are probably going to be a very important part of the story going forward," Fed Chair Jay Powell said Wednesday. "Of course, we want wages to go up, but they have to be consistent with the goal of 2% inflation."


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