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Market Rap 11/30/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures bounced off yesterdays lower end and then tested the upper range 396.94 the pre mkt high

394.86 the corresponding futures low

SPY 3 months, daily candles Pierced thru the 12ema (white) and tested the 150 day MA (orange) as bears put the last daily "higher low" area to the test. Bulls still playing defense so far on maintaining the daily uptrend. (support)

393.30 the low from yesterday

392.83 the 150 day MA

392.66

390.14 (resistance)

397.30 the high from yesterday

400.81

401.54 small open gap

402.91

404.29 the 200 day MA (purple)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also bounced off the lower end of yesterdays range, into the middle of said range 282.10 the pre mkt high

280 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Decisive break below the 12ema (white) yesterday, and violated the daily uptrend area. Bears looking for follow thru here today, with the 50 day MA /and the next chunk of volume profile support the next area to keep an eye on if we do get follow thru under yesterdays low.(support)

279.17 the low from yesterday

276.12 the 50 day MA (blue)

273.85

268.56 open gap (resistance)

282.84 12ema back overhead

283.35 the high from yesterday

286.96-287.91

289.46

Dec. Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Yesterdays move lower gave up about half of Mondays "oversold" bounce. Attempting to hold up at yesterdays lows currently.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles The follow thru attempt over Mondays high failed yesterday; Holding up at Mondays lows, and attempting the next pass at it; as we effectively have a couple days of inside bars. Watching for which way that breaks in the next day or so.

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +39.80.The S&P 500 futures are up 5 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 34 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 13 points and are trading slightly above fair value. Although the futures are currently trading higher, there's a mostly wait-and-see disposition in front of Fed Chair Powell's speech today at 1:30 p.m. ET at the Brookings Institution entitled Economic Outlook, Inflation, and the Labor Market. Market participants are also taking into account some overseas economic data, including a cooler-than-expected CPI reading out of the eurozone for November, and weaker-than-expected Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI readings out of China that fell further into contraction territory (i.e. sub-50 readings). The MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 0.8% compared to last week with purchase applications rising 4% while refinancing applications fell 13%. Other data releases today include:

  • 8:15 ET: November ADP Employment Change (Briefing.com consensus 200,000; prior 239,000)

  • 8:30 ET: October international goods trade deficit (prior $92.20 bln), October advance Retail Inventories (prior 0.4%), October advance Wholesale Inventories (prior 0.8%), Q3 GDP -- Second Estimate (Briefing.com consensus 2.7%; prior 2.6%), and Q3 GDP Deflator -- Second Estimate (Briefing.com consensus 4.1%; prior 4.1%)

  • 9:45 ET: November Chicago PMI (Briefing.com consensus 47.5; prior 45.2)

  • 10:00 ET: October Pending Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus -5.2%; prior -10.2%); October JOLTS - Job Openings (prior 10.717 million)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -3.69 mln)

  • 14:00 ET: Fed's Beige Book

Treasury yields are mixed this morning. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.48% and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.73%. In corporate news:

  • Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP 104.72, +25.96, +33.0%): received takeover interest from (AMGN, JNJ, SNY), according to The Wall Street Journal.

  • CrowdStrike (CRWD 113.28, -24.72, -17.9%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs but says that total net new ARR was below expectations; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel

  • Workday (WDAY 156.67, +13.37, +9.3%): beats by $0.15, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 subscription revenue guidance; approves new share repurchase program for up to $500 mln

  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE 15.75, +0.29, +1.9%): reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides JanQ EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; reaffirms FY22 EPS guidance

  • NetApp (NTAP 64.01, -7.78, -10.8%): beats by $0.15, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

  • Hormel Foods (HRL 44.77, -3.42, -7.1%): beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Intuit (INTU 378.99, -0.72, -0.2%): beats by $0.46, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS and revs below consensus; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance, guides FY23 revs below consensus; Credit Karma experienced continuing deterioration

  • Biogen (BIIB 299.92, +8.51, +2.9%): Eleven experts from leading medical institutions and eight experts from Eisai publish full results of Lecanemab Phase 3 confirmatory clarity ad study for early Alzheimer's disease in the New England Journal of Medicine

  • Micron (MU 54.65, -0.47, -0.9%): during its presentation at Wells Fargo TMT Summit: "Pricing has trended well below what we thought it would be when we had our earnings call [on September 29]"

  • Boeing (BA 177.75, +2.25, +1.3%): Lawmakers close to compromise on Boeing 737 Max certification, according to Bloomberg.

https://www.brookings.edu/events/federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell-the-economic-outlook-and-the-labor-market/



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