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Market Rap 11/23/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures pushed thru yesterdays highs 401.09 the pre mkt high so far

399.58 the after hours low from yesterday, before futures opened

SPY 3 months, daily candles Bulls played defense and held above the most recent "higher low" area, and are pivoting back up to test the recent highs from 11/15. Daily uptrend remains in play. (resistance)

400.07 the high from yesterday - trading a tad above there currently for the small gap up open possibility

402.31 that 11/15 high

405.30 the 200 day MA (purple)

408.46 open gap

411.73 (support)

395.15 the low from yesterday

393.58 the 150 day MA (orange)


392.31 the 12ema (white)


QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also pushed thru the highs from yesterday 287.01 the pre mkt high so far

285.33 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles After a slight break of last Thursdays low with no follow thru, things reversed the other direction, as bulls played defense at the do or die spot needed to keep the daily uptrend intact. (resistance)

286.11 the high from yesterday - trading a tad above there currently for the small gap up open set up



293.26 the recent highs

294.58 the 150 day MA (orange) (support)

281.59 the 12ema (white)

280.46 the low from yesterday

276.69 the 150 day MA

Dec. Vix futures 3 months, daily candles More impressive crush yesterday added onto the last week of a size-able move down

Spot Vix 6 months, daily candles Seasonality taking a toll here as well, now trading around the lowest levels seen since August. 20 psychological test not too far off now. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +33.00.The S&P 500 futures are up 5 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 28 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 21 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. There's not a lot of conviction in the equity futures market this morning. Seasonality has things slightly positive with additional support from Deere's (DE) better-than-expected earnings report and some better than expected flash PMI readings out of the eurozone. China continues to push restrictions aimed at curbing COVID cases, according to Reuters. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its policy rate by 75 basis points (biggest rate hike on record) to 4.25%. Also, EU member are meeting today to discuss a potential agreement on a price cap for Russian oil somewhere between $60-70, according to reports. The weekly MBA Mortgage Application index rose 2.2% week-over-week. Market participants have a big slew of economic data to digest today, including:

  • 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 226,000; prior 222,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.507 mln), October Durable Orders ( consensus 0.4%; prior 0.4%), and Durable Orders ex-transportation ( consensus 0.1%; prior -0.5%)

  • 9:45 ET: Preliminary November IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (prior 50.4) and preliminary November IHS Markit Services PMI (prior 47.8)

  • 10:00 ET: October New Home Sales ( consensus 578,000; prior 603,000) and final November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey ( consensus 55.5; prior 54.7)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -5.40 mln)

  • 12:00 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +64 bcf)

In addition to the data, the FOMC minutes from the last meeting will be released today at 2:00 p.m. ET. In corporate news:

  • Deere (DE 429.75, +13.19, +3.2%): beats by $0.33, beats on revs; provides FY23 net income guidance

  • HP Inc. (HPQ 30.14, +0.76, +2.6%): beats by $0.01, reports slight beat on revs; guides JanQ EPS below consensus; guides FY23 EPS below consensus; to reduce global headcount by 4,000-6,000; increases quarterly dividend by 5%

  • Nordstrom (JWN 20.88, -1.77, -7.8%): beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance, revs guidance

  • Autodesk (ADSK 188.14, -20.76, -9.9%): reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs below consensus; lowers FY23 billings guidance; authorized additional $5 bln for share repurchases

  • Guess? (GES 18.26, -1.49, -7.5%): misses by $0.11, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below two analyst estimate, revs below two analyst estimate

  • Manchester United (MANU 16.0, +1.36, +9.1%): to explore strategic alternatives, including possibility of new investment into the club or sale of the club

  • Credit Suisse (CS 3.9900, -0.10, -2.4%): provides updated Q4 outlook; shareholders approve $4.2 billion capital raise

  • Apple (AAPL 149.88, -0.30, -0.2%): There are protests occurring at the Foxconn manufacturing facility in China, according to Bloomberg

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