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Market Rap 11/17/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke under yesterdays lows/the last few days of lows; as the daily consolidation it had been resisting up until today gets underway. Hourly RSI just clicking into oversold territory. 4hr RSI has room until it's oversold. 397.67 the corresponding futures high

392.09 the pre mkt low so far

SPY 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation had been resisted until today, as we set up for a gap down open under the last 4 days of lows (and under that 150 day MA, orange, that it had been staying above). Looking for a daily "higher low" anywhere above 373.61 in order to maintain the uptrend on this timeframe.


394.79 the low from yesterday, trading under there currently for the gap down open set up

388.30 the daily 12ema (white)


381.14 open gap

378.39 the 50 day MA

373.61 the last daily "higher low"


397.78 the high from yesterday


406.38 the 200 day MA (purple)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also broke under yesterdays lows 287.51 the corresponding futures high

282.74 the pre mkt low so far

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation underway, looking for the the next "higher low" anywhere above 263.03, in order to maintain the uptrend on this timeframe. (support)

284.60 the low from yesterday - trading under there currently for the gap down open ahead


278.93 the daily 12ema (white)

278.18 the 50 day MA (blue)


268.56 open gap

263.03 the previous daily "higher low" (resistance)

289.48 the high from yesterday


296.09 the 150 day MA (orange)

December Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Attempting to carve out a bottom around these recent lows

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles The daily bounce out of the lower 20s back to the mid 20s continues, as yesterdays inside bar is currently breaking to the upside

$DXY 3 months, daily candles Daily bounce on the dollar underway

Still a potential daily bear flag unless it sees some follow thru over the 107.27 area. Heading up to test that level now.

TLT 3 months, daily candles A push above/close above the 50 day MA here yesterday. Cooling off the overbought hourly/4hr oversold conditions right now, especially after the Bullard comments from this morning on more restrictive Fed policy being needed. S&P futures vs fair value: -33.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -99.50.The S&P 500 futures are down 34 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 107 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 226 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. Carryover concerns about the post-CPI rally running its course weigh on the equity futures market this morning. Additionally, worries that the economic environment and earnings estimates will deteriorate further in coming months have created some reservations as well. Republicans officially captured control of the House of Representatives following last week's election, according to CNN. It is expected the House breakdown will be 221-214 in favor of Republicans once all votes are counted, according to NBC. Russia renewed the Ukraine grain deal, according to The Wall Street Journal. Treasury yields are climbing this morning. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.39% and the 10-yr note yield is up five basis points to 3.74%. Energy complex futures trade in mixed fashion. WTI crude oil futures are down 2.0% to $83.85/bbl and natural gas futures are up 1.4% to $6.70/mmbtu. In corporate news:

  • Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 16.74, -0.85, -4.83%): Credit Suisse downgraded to Underperform from Outperform

  • NVIDIA (NVDA 16.74, -0.85, -4.83%): misses by $0.12, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus

  • Cisco (CSCO 46.44, +2.05, +4.62%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides JanQ EPS in-line, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Bath & Body Works (BBWI 37.82, +6.69, +21.49%): beats by $0.20, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line, expects Q4 revs to be down mid-single to low-double digits yr/yr

  • Alibaba (BABA 77.69, -0.47, -0.60%): beats by RMB1.32, reports revs in-line; extends share repurchase program

  • Macy's (M 21.31, +1.60, +8.12%): beats by $0.33, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS guidance, reaffirms FY23 revs guidance; Q3 comps -3.1% on owned basis

  • Kohl's (KSS 28.61, -1.19, -3.99%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; will not provide Q4 guidance and withdraws FY22 guidance

  • Starbucks (SBUX 96.25, -0.82, -0.84%): Workers at 100 Starbucks locations plan to strike on Red Cup Day, according to CNBC.

  • BJ's Wholesale (BJ 80.60, +2.24, +2.86%): beats by $0.15, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS above consensus

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