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Market Rap 11/16/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures going sideways in the middle of yesterdays range 396.52 the corresponding futures low

400.03 the pre mkt high

SPY 3 months, daily candles A push higher yesterday following a softer than expected PPI report was reversed mid-day, on news of Ukraine/Russian missiles hitting Poland; Tested the 150 day MA (orange) and last few days of lows, before closing higher in the middle of yesterdays range. (resistance)

402.31 the high from yesterday

403.10 the 9/13 high before the open gap begins

406.67 the 200 day MA (purple)

408.46 fills that gap

411.73 (support)

395.11 the 150 day MA


387 the daily 12ema (white)


381.14 open gap

378.44 the 50 day MA (blue)

373.61 the last daily "higher low"

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also trading in the middle of yesterdays range 287.77 the corresponding futures low

290.60 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Headed up to test the 9/21 highs before pulling back, so far still resisting any daily consolidation of this recent move (resistance)

293.26 the high from yesterday

293.95 that 9/21 high

296.50 the 150 day MA (orange)

296.53-296.93 after that (support)

285.97 the low from yesterday


278.45 the 50 day MA (blue)

277.75 the daily 12ema (white)


268.56 open gap

263.03 the last daily "higher low"

Dec. Vix futures 3 months, daily candles A lower low yesterday, followed by a higher high after the Poland missile news. A wide range to ultimately go nowhere in the end. Inside bar day so far today within that wide range.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles The daily bounce here continued, off an RSI level from a few days ago where historically you see some type of recovery move.

Inside bar today within yesterdays wide range. S&P futures vs fair value: +0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.50.The S&P 500 futures are up 1 point and are trading in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are flat and are trading slightly above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1 point and are trading in line with fair value. Equity futures are mixed this morning and little changed from the flat line. Target (TGT), down double-digits in premarket action, disappointed with its earnings and outlook, which is likely weighing on sentiment. Poland believes that the missile that landed yesterday was fired from a Ukrainian air defense system and was unintentional, according to The Wall Street Journal. Treasury yields are moving lower this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.34% and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.76%. The UK reported worse-than-expected inflation data. The Consumer Price Index for October was up 11% yr/yr. In other news, former President Trump announced he will run for president in 2024. Market participants will receive the following U.S. economic data today:

  • 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -0.1%)

  • 8:30 ET: October Import/Export Prices, October Retail Sales ( consensus 0.9%; prior 0.0%), and Retail Sales ex-auto ( consensus 0.6%; prior 0.1%)

  • 9:15 ET: October Industrial Production ( consensus 0.0%; prior 0.4%) and Capacity Utilization ( consensus 80.3%; prior 80.3%)

  • 10:00 ET: September Business Inventories ( consensus 0.5%; prior 0.8%) and November NAHB Housing Market Index ( consensus 36; prior 38)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior +3.92 mln)

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