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Market Rap 11/11/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures continued the melt up 398.19 the corresponding futures high

394.47 the corresponding futures low

SPY 3 months, daily candles Massive gap up, on volume, over all recent highs and testing levels last seen before the September FOMC meeting, after the CPI report that came in softer than expected yesterday. New daily uptrend engaged here, weekly could probably be debated as a new uptrend or the same bounce off the October lows.


395.04 the high from yesterday - trading above there currently for another potential gap up ahead

396 the 150 day MA


407.32 the 200 day MA (purple)

408.46 open gap


385.64 the low from yesterday

381.14 open gap

380.24 the daily 12ema (white)

378.18 the 50 day MA (blue)

373.61 the new daily "higher low" now, and the spot for bulls to stay anywhere above once daily consolidation of this move begins

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also continued the melt up 286.23 the corresponding futures high

282.56 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Massive gap up here following the CPI report also, on big volume, with a push and close back above the 50 day MA (which previously had been containing Octobers bounce off the bottom)

Heading up to test resistance from the October 25th highs, in the context of a new daily uptrend - follow thru over that Oct 25th high of 284.60 would get a new weekly uptrend.(resistance)

283.05 the high from yesterday - trading above there currently for the gap up open ahead

284.60 that Oct. 25th high

293.95 after that


297.61 the 150 day MA (orange) (support)

278.95 the 50 day MA (blue)

273.85 the low from yesterday

271.28 the daily 12ema (white)

268.56 open gap

263.03 the new daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to stay anywhere above once daily consolidation of this move begins, in order to defend the uptrend on this timeframe

November Vix futures found new lows, after failing at the highs it saw the day after the Nov. FOMC announcement

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles New lows here found yesterday, after the daily bounce topped out just under the Nov 3rd highs (day after the Nov FOMC announcement, like Nov. Vix)

22ish then 20 look to be the next "levels of support" but the daily RSI is still at levels where it historically bounces. Possible signal of changing of the guard to a lower vol environment though?

$DXY 3 months, daily candles Big follow thru down , after getting crushed yesterday. Just like that, king dollar is now almost oversold on this daily timeframe. Daily and weekly downtrends now in play here.

TLT 3 months, daily candles Massive volume, as big as what we saw around the recent lows from 10/21-10/24. Pushed above the 10/27 highs and broke the daily downtrend, but watching for some follow thru today. S&P futures vs fair value: +19.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +72.00.The S&P 500 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 72 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 164 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. Buying interest has carried over from the stock market's best day since 2020. The October CPI report catalyzed yesterday's massive rally. The good vibes from that report continue to be felt, but the snapback momentum has understandably subsided some. Nonetheless, the major indices are on track for a higher open, drawing added support from the news that China has relaxed its Covid restrictions for inbound travelers and is aiming now to avoid city-wide mass testing when the transmission chain is clear, according to Bloomberg. The Treasury market is closed today in observance of Veterans Day. The 10-yr note yield will enter next week sitting at 3.82%. The U.S. Dollar Index continues to weaken. It is down another 1.1% at 107.06 this morning, leaving it down 3.5% for the week. WTI crude futures are up 3.3% to $89.31/bbl and copper futures are up 2.5% to $3.85/lb, bolstered by the weaker dollar and reopening hopes for China following the news of the relaxed restrictions for inbound travelers. There is no government data being released today as federal offices are closed for Veterans Day. The lone economic release is the Preliminary November University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 a.m. ET ( consensus 59.6; prior 59.9). In corporate news:

  • Doximity (DOCS 31.98, +5.65, +21.5%):beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs below at the midpoint

  • Toast, Inc. (TOST 22.30, +2.30, +11.5%): reports Q3 (Sep) results, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus

  • (LZ 10.85, +1.39, +14.7%): reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line; raises FY22 revs above consensus

  • Beazer Homes (BZH 13.15, +0.62, +5.0%): beats by $0.76, beats on revs; the cancellation rate for the quarter was 32.8%, up from 11.7% in the previous year

  • Flowers Foods (FLO 28.53, -0.88, -3.0%): beats by $0.01, beats on revs; reaffirms FY22 EPS guidance, guides FY22 revs above consensus

  • Salesforce, Inc. (CRM 157.78, +1.48, +1.0%): announced that Gavin Patterson will step down from his position as President and Chief Strategy Officer and will depart effective January 31, 2023

  • Steel Dynamics (STLD 97.80, +1.46, +1.5%): Board authorized additional $1.5 bln share repurchase

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