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Market Rap 11/04/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures bouncing to test yesterdays highs ahead of the October jobs report 374.95 the pre mkt low

369.95 the corresponding futures low

SPY 3 months, daily candles Tuesdays loss of the daily uptrend saw follow thru yesterday, with a gap down open; that gap just missed filling a few hours after the open, as the oversold hourly/4hr bounce got underway. Daily doji candle yesterday (potential reversal and daily bounce signal with an open/and close over 371.47), as this tests the top of the biggest chunk of volume profile that we've seen over the past 3months. (support)

368.79 the low from yesterday

363.54 (resistance)

374.20 the high from yesterday

374.76 officialy fills the gap

377.27 daily 12ema back overhead (white)

380.46 50 day MA also above (blue)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures saw a break of yesterdays lows that saw no follow thru, now testing the upper range from yesterday 259.78 the corresponding futures low

263.45 the pre mkt high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Follow thru on the new daily downtrend here yesterday, bulls looking to play defense against the 10/13 lows. (support)

260.10 the low from yesterday

254.26 that 10/13 low (resistance)

264.50 the high from yesterday

265.61 overhead gap

272.04 the daily 12ema (white)

Nov. Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Gave up yesterdays bounce and right back to testing the lows

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Actually made some new lows here yesterday (after testing the highest levels of the week we saw from Monday just before open), even with the follow thru of the post FOMC broad market weakness, which is interesting; Not far from yesterdays lows so far today.

$DXY 3months, daily candles Backing off some today, against the upper range we saw from October

TLT 3 months, daily candles Held the "higher low" here from 10/31 in regular trading hours (broke by a scooch in pre mkt right before the open), then the bounce stalled right at the 12ema (white).

Back to testing that lower end today, as bears hope to break that level and see continuation of the daily downtrend. Bulls hoping for another hold, and then a pivot thru the 12ema / and ultimately follow thru over 97.63-97.90 to confirm a new daily uptrend.

S&P futures vs fair value: +25.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +80.30.The S&P 500 futures are up 26 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 76 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 172 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. Equity futures are higher this morning as market participants buy the dip after the recent slump that saw the S&P 500 drop about 5.0% from Tuesday's high. There's also been a huge batch of earnings news, which is drawing mixed reactions. Chinese stocks are getting a boost this morning after markets in Hong Kong and China outperformed amid reports that inspectors from the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board completed their work in China about two weeks ahead of schedule. There has also been some renewed speculation that China will ultimately move away from its zero-covid policy. Treasury yields are trading up ahead of the October Employment Report at 8:30 a.m. ET. The 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 4.16% and the 2-yr note yield is up four basis points to 4.75%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.5% to 112.31. In corporate news:

  • Starbucks (SBUX 88.84 +4.16 +4.91%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs, global comps +7%; U.S. comps +11%; China comps -16%; guides FY23 EPS above consensus; FY23 revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 global comp guidance; expects solid margin expansion globally in FY23

  • DoorDash (DASH 52.97 +5.36 +11.26%): reports Q3 results, beats on revs and beats on adjusted EBITDA

  • Microchip (MCHP 65.05 +5.59 +9.40%): beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS, revs above consensus; increases dividend

  • Block (SQ 60.50 +6.59 +12.22%): beats by $0.19, beats on revs

  • Carvana (CVNA 12.86 -1.49 -10.38%): misses by $0.70, misses on revs

  • PayPal (PYPL 71.74 -4.81 -6.28%): beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

  • Twilio (TWLO 48.40 -16.96 -25.95%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Atlassian (TEAM 127.90 -46.27 -26.57%): misses by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 revs below consensus

  • Rocket Companies (RKT 6.24 -0.27 -4.15%): misses by $0.05, beats on revs; approves renewal and extension of its $1.0 bln repurchase program

  • Cardinal Health (CAH 75.33 -0.34 -0.45%): beats by $0.23, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS in-line

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