Market Rap 11/03/22 by CTG
SPY / QQQ / Vix
SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures tried the bounce attempt overnight, it topped out early this AM, and in the last couple hours we've found lower lows 376.36 the corresponding futures high
372.19 the pre mkt low so far
SPY 3 months, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles Lost the 50 day MA (blue), daily 12ema, (white) and the daily uptrend following the FOMC Powell press conference. Weekly timeframe now looking for a "higher low" anywhere above the 10/13 lows; as we start to lose the lows from last week, and get weekly consolidation of this recent bounce underway. (support)
374.76 the low from yesterday - trading well under there currently for the gap down open ahead.
369-371ish is where some heavier volume profile support starts to come in at, currently we're in an air pocket
363.54 the 10/21 lows (resistance)
378.41 the daily 12ema
381.31 the 50 day MA
388.63 the high from yesterday
QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures taking the next leg lower under yesterday's lows as well. Hourly RSI pretty oversold here, with the 4hr RSI now getting oversold also. 266.94 the corresponding futures high
262.79 the pre mkt low so far
QQQ 3 months, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles Lost the daily 12ema (white) along with the daily uptrend, and also confirmed a new daily downtrend in the process. Weekly consolidation well underway, bulls hoping for a weekly "higher low" anywhere above the 10/13 low, which is coming into view quickly. (support)
265.61 the low from yesterday, trading under there currently for the gap down open ahead
254.26 the 10/13 low (resistance)
274.14 the daily 12ema
278.21 the high from yesterday
November Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Daily bounce got underway here yesterday, testing up at yesterdays highs currently
Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Not sure what to make of the action here yesterday. Nov. Vix futures did what you'd expect on that type of broad market reversal (almost a 4% high to low move for the S&P) but this seemed broken/frozen.
Testing yesterdays highs currently, but those highs were found well before the FOMC action.
TLT 5 days, hourly candles and 3months, daily candles Broke the hourly tightening range bearish following the FOMC press conference. Big follow thru lower early this AM as longer term interest rates surge again. On the daily chart, we failed up at recent highs/failed to change the daily trend - currently testing the "higher low" level of 95.03 from 10/31.
Break that level with some follow thru today and the downtrends on the daily, weekly, monthly timeframes continue with "gaps" to fill lower from this recent oversold bounce.
$DXY 3months, daily candles The dollars recent bounce continues as it heads back up to test the upper range
https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update S&P futures vs fair value: -32.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -118.80.The S&P 500 futures are down 31 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 120 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 200 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. Equity futures are trading with carryover momentum from yesterday's disappointing finish. Market participants continue to deal with the reality that the Fed is apt to take rates higher than expected for longer than expected. Treasury yields are markedly higher this morning. The 2-yr note yield is up 15 basis points to 4.70% and the 10-yr note yield is up 13 basis points to 4.18%. Following the FOMC policy decision yesterday, focus is again on central banks tightening policy. The Norges Bank raised its key rate by 25 bps to 2.50% while the Bank of England is expected to announce a 75-bps rate hike to 3.00% at 8:00 ET. In other news, China has reaffirmed its zero COVID policy, according to Bloomberg. Market participants will receive the following economic data today:
8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 222,000; prior 217,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.438 mln), September trade balance (Briefing.com consensus -$71.00 bln; prior -$67.40 bln), preliminary Q3 Productivity (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%; prior -4.1%) and preliminary Q3 Unit Labor Costs (Briefing.com consensus 4.2%; prior 10.2%)
10:00 ET: September Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.0%) and October ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 55.2%; prior 56.7%)
10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +52 bcf)
In corporate news:
Qualcomm (QCOM 103.51 -8.99 -7.99%): reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
Etsy (ETSY 95.64 +8.10 +9.25%): reports Q3 (Sep) results, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line
Peloton (PTON 7.18 -1.45 -16.80%): reports Q1 (Sep) results, misses on revs; guides Q2 revs below consensus
eBay (EBAY 40.40 +2.34 +6.15%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs, GMV down 11% yr/yr, Active Buyers down 11% yr/yr; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs in-line
Fortinet (FTNT 46.49 -6.74 -12.66%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY22 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
Booking Holdings (BKNG 1,851.72 +73.54 +4.14%): beats by $3.18, beats on revs
Roku (ROKU 43.81 -10.51 -19.35%): beats by $0.35, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus; CFO Louden to leave in 2023
Moderna (MRNA 131.51 -17.11 -11.51%): misses by $0.58, misses on revs