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Market Rap 11/02/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures trading sideways in the lower third of yesterdays range, ahead of the FOMC decision at 2et 383.60 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened

386.14 the pre mkt high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Yesterdays consolidation held above the 50 day MA, as we await expected FOMC volatility (support)

383.29 the low from yesterday

382.06 the 50 day MA (blue)

379.33 the last daily "higher low" and the spot bulls need to stay above to maintain the daily uptrend (weekly downtrend)

379.06 the daily 12ema (white) (resistance)

390.39 the high from yesterday

395.96-396.20

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also trading sideways in the bottom third of yesterdays range 274.05 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened 276.49 the pre mkt high


QQQ 3 months, daily candles Still unable to get above the 50 day MA (blue) and coming down to test the most recent "higher low" here, as we trade around the daily 12ema (white) (support)

274.74 the low from yesterday

272.06 the last daily "higher low" and spot bulls need to stay above to keep the uptrend on this timeframe

266.82 after that (resistance)

275.67 the 12ema (trading right there currently)

282.07 the high from yesterday

284.60 the 10/25 peak

284.70 the 50 day MA

Nov Vix futures 3months, daily candles

Some wiggle off the bottom here, but still pretty subdued ahead of the FOMC, which is note-able. Inside bar day so far today, watching for the direction of that break.

26.15 to the upside for the bull break

25.51 to the downside for the bear break

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Still just trying to hold above recent lows here, and not seeming all too concerned with the FOMC decision ahead

TLT 3 months, daily candles Trading right around the daily 12ema, with a new daily "higher low" found at 95.03, Mondays low. On the verge of a new daily uptrend if bulls can get over 97.90, which would be note-able.

S&P futures vs fair value: +2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +25.50.The S&P 500 futures are up 2 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 18 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 11 points and are trading slightly below fair value. Equity futures are mixed and little changed from the flat line. There is not a lot of conviction this morning ahead of the FOMC rate hike decision at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. In overseas news, South Korea's CPI increased at its fastest yr/yr pace (+5.7%) since December 2008 in the October reading. China has implemented a 7-day lockdown of the area around the Foxconn iPhone manufacturing plant in Zhengzhou, according to Reuters. Shipping giant Maersk, seen as a gauge for global trade, beat Q3 expectations but warned of "dark clouds on the horizon" as demand slows, according to CNBC. The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index fell 0.5% with purchase applications falling 1.0% and refinancing applications rising 0.2%. Other data to expect today includes:

  • 8:15 ET: October ADP Employment Change (Briefing.com consensus 198,000; prior 208,000)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior +2.59 mln)

In corporate news:

  • CVS Health (CVS 96.90 +2.28 +2.41%): beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS in-line; CVS (CVS), Walgreens (WBA), and Walmart (WMT) will pay $13.8 bln to settle opioid claims, according to Reuters

  • Humana (HUM 550.30 -4.19 -0.76%): beats by $0.61, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY22 EPS guidance

  • Airbnb (ABNB 102.42 -6.63 -6.08%): beats by $0.29, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line, expects Nights and Experiences Booked growth to moderate slightly qtr/qtr

  • Advanced Micro (AMD 62.58 +2.92 +4.89%): misses by $0.03, misses on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus

  • Rogers Corp (ROG 135.90 -93.59 -40.78%): DuPont terminates deal to acquire Rogers Corp.

  • Match Group (MTCH 50.50 +6.60 +15.03%): reports Q3 (Sep) results, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus

  • Cirrus Logic (CRUS 72.00 +4.15 +6.12%): beats by $0.55, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs in-line

  • Caesars Entertainment (CZR 47.38 +2.99 +6.74%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs

  • ZoomInfo (ZI 34.28 -9.22 -21.20%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs in-line; raises FY22 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Mondelez Int'l (MDLZ 63.30 +1.43 +2.31%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs, raise FY22 outlook

  • Estee Lauder (EL 183.78 -22.98 -11.11%): beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 revs below consensus


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