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Market Rap 10/28/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles The S&P flushed lower right after close yesterday following the AMZN earnings report. Trading has been sideways in that lower end ever since. 373.80 the after hours low right after close

379.47 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3months, daily candles

Daily consolidation underway after rejecting around the 50 day MA (blue line) area. Daily uptrend, weekly downtrend in play. (support)

379.33 the low from yesterday - trading under there currently for the gap down open set up

374.32 the daily 12ema


363.54 the last daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to stay anywhere above on this daily consolidation, to keep the uptrend in their favor (resistance)

384.13 the 50 day MA

385 the high from yesterday


QQQ 5 days, hourly candles The Nasdaq also took a dive lower following the AMZN earnings report 265.10 the after hours low

271.58 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3months, daily candles Daily consolidation underway, losing the daily 12ema has us looking at a deeper challenge of the daily uptrend.


272.34 the low from yesterday - trading well under there currently for the gap down open set up

266.82 the last "higher low" and spot the bulls will need to defend to maintain their daily uptrend


274.32 the daily 12ema back overhead (white line)

278.28 the high from yesterday

283.98-284.60 the recent peak

287.35 the 50 day MA

Nov vix futures 3 months, daily candles Reversal doji candle yesterday, inside bar so far today. Watching for which way this breaks - 27.91 to the upside for the bull break (and more equity weakness) and 26.75 to the downside for the bear break (and the next "higher low" found on the indices)

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Hanging out near recent lows still, even with the equity pullback we're seeing. Mainly due to the S&P holding up better than everyone else, buoyed by XLE and XLV.

$DXY daily bounce underway not doing equities any favors. We are looking for a daily "lower high" on this bounce, however. S&P futures vs fair value: -15.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -97.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 17 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 100 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 8 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. Equity futures are lower this morning as market participants digest the disappointing guidance from Amazon (AMZN) accompanying their earnings report after yesterday's close. There may also be a feeling of trepidation in play ahead of the latest inflation reading. The September Personal Income and Spending report, which includes the PCE Price Index, is out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Treasury yields are inching higher as the 10-yr note yield breaches the 4.00% level. The 10-yr note yield is up six basis points to 4.01% and the 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.36%. The Biden administration is reported considering additional restrictions on exports of advanced technology to China, according to The New York Times. Also, the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose policy stance and raised its inflation forecast for 2022 to 2.9% from 2.3%. Aside from the September Personal Income and Spending report, other data releases today include:

  • 8:30 ET: Q3 Employment Cost Index ( consensus 1.2%; prior 1.3%)

  • 10:00 ET: September Pending Home Sales ( consensus -5.1%; prior -2.0%) and final October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey ( consensus 59.6; prior 59.8)

In corporate news:

  • Amazon (AMZN 97.75 -13.21 -11.91%): reports Q3 results, revs in-line; guides Q4 revs below consensus; moderating sales growth and FX headwinds expected to persist in Q4; will pause hiring in certain businesses

  • Apple (AAPL 145.45 +0.65 +0.45%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; iPhone miss expectations as CEO Tim Cook cites supply issues; Macs well ahead of expectations; margins beat; revenue growth will decelerate in Q1 (Dec) vs Q4 (Sep). Mac revenue is expected to decline substantially due to tough comparable from last year. Gross margins are expected to be 42.5-43.5%. Q4 (Sep) revenue growth was 7.8%. Q1 Capital IQ consensus 3% yr/yr

  • Twitter (TWTR 53.86 +0.16 +0.30%): Elon Musk is now in charge of Twitter. CEO Parag Agrawal and CFO Ned Segal are out, according to CNBC

  • T-Mobile (TMUS 145.18 +4.55 +3.24%): eports Q3 (Sep) results, misses on revs

  • Intel (INTC 28.03 +1.76 +6.70%): beats by $0.26, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; sees Q4 $0.20 vs $0.68 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $14-15 bln vs $16.43 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

  • Capital One (COF 98.48 -3.65 -3.57%): misses by $0.84, beats on revs

  • Pinterest (PINS 24.37 +2.48 +11.33%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; expects Q4 revenue to grow by mid-single digits vs. consensus estimate of 4.5% growth

  • Exxon Mobil (XOM 110.08 +2.53 +2.35%): beats by $0.65, beats on revs

  • Chevron (CVX 181.59 +3.69 +2.07%): beats by $0.71, beats on revs

  • Colgate-Palmolive (CL 73.00 -0.23 -0.31%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY22 EPS below consensus, reaffirms FY22 revs guidance

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