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Market Rap 10/27/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures testing yesterdays lows 381.70 the pre mkt low so far

384.85 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Started to push above the 50 day MA yesterday before reversing, and closing with a gravestone doji. Breaking yesterdays lows with some follow thru would confirm, and would get daily consolidation of this recent up move underway. Daily uptrend/Weekly downtrend in play. (resistance)

385.07 the 50 day MA (blue line)

387.58 (support)

381.35 the low from yesterday looking to get tested first thing


373.29 the daily 12ema (white line) - milder consolidation of this recent move keeps us above this level

363.54 the last daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to hold above once daily consolidation begins, in order to keep the daily uptrend intact QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures already broke yesterdays lows a couple hours ago 275.92 the pre mkt low so far

279.83 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Gravestone doji here yesterday as well, and futures action is seeing follow thru under that level as we shape up for a gap down open, and daily consolidation of this recent up move. Daily uptrend/Weekly downtrend in play. (support)

277.43 the low from yesterday - trading under there currently for the gap down open set up

274.58 the daily 12ema (white line)


266.82 the most recent "higher low" and spot for bulls to hold anywhere above to keep the uptrend on this timeframe (resistance)


288.46 the 50 day MA

November Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Another big vol crush day yesterday, seeing very little bounce so far today; as the broad market looks to be on the verge of some digestion of this recent move

Spot Vix 3 months daily candles Decent follow thru down, under the early October lows yesterday - trading in the lower end of yesterdays range still so far today. Debating on an "oversold" hourly/4hr timeframe bounce off the top of the range it broke out from in late September.

$DXY 3 months, daily candles Broke the early October lows here yesterday, which is note-able; Trying to get back above that level currently.

TLT 3 months, daily candles Oversold bounce continued here yesterday, as this lifts out of the extreme oversold RSI territory it saw last week, and Monday. Tested the daily 12ema (white line) with that being a normal area for this bounce to initially stall at. S&P futures vs fair value: -1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -67.30.The S&P 500 futures are down 1 point and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 62 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 205 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. Equity futures are mixed this morning. There has been a positive response to reassuring earnings reports from several blue chip companies, including Dow components Honeywell (HON), McDonald's (MCD), Caterpillar (CAT), and Merck (MRK). Meanwhile, heavy selling of Meta Platforms (META) following its disappointing quarterly results is weighing on the Nasdaq 100 futures along with modest weakness in Apple (AAPL) and (AMZN) ahead of their reports after today's close. Treasury yields are modestly higher. The 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 4.07% and the 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.45%. Also, the U.S. Dollar Index is inching higher this morning after a big downside move yesterday, up 0.4% to 110.09. The European Central Bank is expected to announce a 75 basis point increase in its key policy rates at 8:15 a.m. ET. Economic data today includes:

  • 8:30 ET: Advance Q3 GDP ( consensus 2.3%; prior -0.6%), advance Q3 Chain Deflator ( consensus 5.3%; prior 9.0%), weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 220,000; prior 214,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.385 mln), September Durable Orders ( consensus 0.6%; prior -0.2%), and Durable Orders ex-transportation ( consensus 0.2%; prior 0.2%)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +111 bcf)

In corporate news:

  • Meta Platforms (META 100.94, -28.88, -22.3%): misses by $0.21, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line; lowers high end of FY22 expense guidance range, guides for FY23 expenses of $96-$101 bln; with over 140 bln Reels plays daily, company believes it is gaining time spend share from TikTok; ad revs from large advertisers remains challenged

  • Ford Motor (F 12.57, -0.25, -1.95%): reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides to low end FY22 adjusted EBIT prior guidance; increases FY22 adjusted FCF guidance; resumes modest share repurchase program; to wind down its Argo AI joint venture

  • Caterpillar (CAT 206.61, +9.65, +4.90%): beats by $0.79, beats on revs

  • Merck (MRK 100.38, +1.97, +2.00%): beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS in-line, revs above consensus

  • McDonald's (MCD 263.60, +6.99, +2.72%): beats by $0.10, beats on revs, global comps +9.5%, US comps +6.1%

  • Honeywell (HON 199.00, +8.73, +4.59%): beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides FY22 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Southwest Air (LUV 36.00, +1.63, +4.74%): beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 revs above consensus

  • Align Tech (ALGN 176.20, -45.44, -20.50%): misses by $0.81, misses on revs

  • Sleep Number (SNBR 26.14, -10.48, -28.62%): beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS below consensus

  • ServiceNow (NOW 417.49, +51.08, +13.94%): beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line

  • Credit Suisse (CS 4.2400, -0.55, -11.48%): reports Q3 results; beats on revs; provides outlook; unveils new strategy; it is nearing sale of its securitized-products group to Apollo Global Management (APO) and PIMCO, according to WSJ

  • Wolfspeed (WOLF 79.15, -27.29, -25.64%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

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