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Market Rap 10/24/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

ES 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures pushed thru Fridays highs, then saw some hourly overbought RSI consolidation, now heading back to test the futures high 3813.25 the futures high

3736.50 the futures low

SPY 3 months, daily candles Bullish engulfing candle on Friday on big options expiration related volume; found a new daily "higher low" in the process. Currently over the high from 10/18 in pre mkt, which would change the charts a bit and confirm a new uptrend on this timeframe for the bulls; watching for a strong close today, with follow thru for more confidence. Weekly timeframe is still firmly controlled by the bears, but a counter trend rally is looking to take shape. (resistance)

374.80 the high from Friday, trading above there currently for the gap up open set up

378.72-379.46 next, pushing over those levels would give the bulls more confidence in a new daily uptrend

387.86 the 50 day MA (blue line)

389.31 after that (support)

367.56 the daily 12ema (white line)

363.54 the low from Friday and the new daily "higher low"

NQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also saw a strong push thru Fridays highs, consolidated after hitting hourly overbought RSI conditions, now heading back up towards those futures highs 11,530.25 the futures high

11,260.75 the futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles New daily "higher low" set here Friday, looking for a new confirmed daily uptrend if bulls can get thru the 10/18 high and see some follow thru/a strong close. (resistance)

275.97 the high from Friday, trading above there currently for the gap up open set up

277.21 that 10/18 high, trading right around there currently

279.43 open gap

284.18 after that

293.95 (support)

270.96 the daily 12ema

266.82 the low from Friday

Nov Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Inside bar day so far within Fridays range, as we head back to test the lower range going back to 10/6

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Finally broke back under the psychological 30 level on Friday; Pushed back above earlier this AM as the broad market futures consolidated, now back testing that 30 level

$DXY 3 months, daily candles The dollar saw a strong back off Friday against the 10/13 high; saw some follow thru under Fridays lows earlier this AM before the current bounce attempt

TLT 3 months, daily candles Massive volume day here on Friday with a potential reversal doji in play, as bulls wait for a long overdue bounce off deeply oversold RSI conditions on this timeframe, the weekly, and the monthly charts. Currently testing Fridays highs.

An open over, and more importantly a close over 93.17 would confirm that reversal doji, with more confidence coming if we push over Fridays highs and close that "gap" up to 94.74.

Lots of wood for bulls to chop after that, with all higher timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly) firmly in bear control. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +33.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +74.80. The S&P 500 futures are up 32 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 69 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 285 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value. Equity futures are moving higher this morning, fueled by carryover upside momentum from last week's turnaround effort. Global bond markets are also behaving better, acting as another upside driving force. The UK gilt is down 26 basis points to 3.80% with growing expectations that Rishi Sunak will be elected Prime Minister and amid reports that Finance Minister Hunt is looking to potentially raise taxes. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is down four basis points to 4.46% and the 10-yr note yield is down five basis points to 4.17%. Germany and the U.K. reported weaker than expected flash Manufacturing PMI readings for October while Services readings from France and the U.K. also missed expectations. There is notable weakness in Chinese stocks. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped more than 6.0%. This comes after President Xi was elected to a third term, fueling worries about the state tightening control over the economy and carrying on with its zero Covid policy. U.S. economic data is limited to the preliminary IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (prior 52.0) and Services PMI (prior 49.3) for October. In corporate news:

  • Meta Platforms (META 128.78 -1.23 -0.95%): downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank of America

  • Wolfspeed (WOLF 110.50 +4.73 +4.47%): upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan

  • Tesla (TSLA 210.29 -4.15 -2.2%): lowering China prices, according to Bloomberg; discloses that YTD it recorded $170 million of impairment losses resulting from changes to the carrying value of its bitcoin and gains of $64 million on certain conversions of bitcoin into fiat currency

  • SLB (SLB 50.29 -0.12 -0.24%): Schlumberger announced its new name—SLB

  • KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB 18.79 -2.66 -12.40%): Chinese stocks are being hit hard with President Xi concentrating power over the weekend

“In Fed blackout period now; thus, markets have seven trading days before we hear from Fed on policy again. Next speaker on policy will be Powell at Nov 2 press conference.”

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