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Market Rap 10/21/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke yesterdays lows 362.75 the pre mkt low

366.26 the after hours high from yesterday before futures opened

SPY 3 months, daily candles After a brief push thru Wednesdays highs, things reversed and sold off the rest of the day, continuing daily consolidation. Broke below and closed below the 12ema (white line).(support)




348.11 the recent lows (resistance)

372.67 the high from yesterday


QQQ 3 months, daily candles Nasdaq futures also broke the lows from yesterday 266.16 the pre mkt low

270 the after hours high from yesterday before futures opened

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Setting up for a small gap down open under the lows from yesterday, and Wednesday. Back under the 12ema (white line) as consolidation of the recent move off the lows continues.(support)

267.92-268.07 the lows from the past 2 days - under those levels and setting up for the small gap down open

266.74 Mondays low - also trading a tad under there currently


254.26 the recent low (resistance)

274.84 the high from yesterday


TLT continues to melt down and pressure the broad market, as longer term interest rates continue their breakout and surge higher. Some extreme oversold RSI readings on the hourly/4hr timeframes currently, with the longer term timeframe RSI readings on the daily, weekly, monthly all oversold as well.

TLT 15 yr, monthly candles The knife continues to fall at an alarming rate - currently testing levels last seen in 2011, and trading around the next chunk of monthly volume profile in the 93ish area.

87.30-88.14 the next major levels if we don't see a meaningful bounce around these levels. Everyone watching for something to break again due to the speed of these moves in the bond market.

Nov vix futures 3 months, daily candles Broke the lows from Wednesday here before reversing. Choppy sideways action from the Vix complex the past week.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Trying to hold above the 30 level after a brief peek below yesterday morning. With the Vix this high already (30s), the moves in the broad market would need to get more dramatic to the downside to see a breakout higher here. OR a significant break below 30 to see a more dramatic bounce to the upside out of the broad market.

$DXY 3 months, daily candles King dollar has firmed back up and is continuing its ascent, after finding its new daily "higher low" earlier in the week. S&P futures vs fair value: -14.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -76.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 13 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 75 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 113 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. Equity futures are weak this morning as rates continue to rise. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.61% and the 10-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.27%. Market participants are also digesting a higher terminal fed funds rate than what was previously expected. The fed funds futures market is pricing in a 5.00% terminal rate by May 2023. Snap's comments about a difficult advertising environment have created general growth concerns. Meta Platforms and Alphabet are trading down in sympathy with Snap's view. In overseas news, the UK reported some disappointing retail sales for September and Japan's Core CPI grew at its fastest pace since late 2014 in the September reading. The UK 10-yr gilt yield is climbing, up 12 basis points to 4.03%. The British pound is weakening (GBP/USD -1.2% to 1.1107). Continued weakness in the yen sent it to its lowest level against the dollar since mid-1990. The U.S. Dollar Index is climbing, up 0.6% to 113.53. There is no U.S. economic data of note today. In corporate news:

  • Twitter (TWTR 48.64, -3.80, -7.25%): Large job cuts are likely at Twitter when Elon Musk assumes control, according to the Washington Post

  • American Express (AXP 134.10, -8.32, -5.84%): beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY22 guidance

  • Schlumberger (SLB 46.65, +0.96, +2.10%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs

  • Snap (SNAP 7.78, -3.01, -27.90%): beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line, internal outlook for Q4 revs below consensus; ARPU declines to $3.11; also announces $500 mln stock buyback authorization

  • CSX (CSX 28.24, +1.16, +4.28%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs

  • Verizon (VZ 36.75, -0.25, -0.68%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; reaffirms FY22 EPS guidance

  • Whirlpool (WHR 124.99, -6.34, -4.83%): misses by $0.86, misses on revs; guides FY22 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; strategic review of EMEA nears conclusion

  • Tenet Healthcare (THC 43.44, -10.88, -20.03%): beats by $0.22, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; also authorizes a $1 bln share repurchase program

10 yr new highs

DXY pushing higher


"50% of all options trading on S&P500 are expiring today. This is 4x what prevailed before the pandemic. (source: Mizuho)."

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