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Market Rap 10/20/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures held yesterdays lows and bounced back into the middle of yesterdays range 365.98 the corresponding futures low

370.45 the pre mkt high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation of this recent move began yesterday, now we watch to see how shallow, or deep, that consolidation is. Wicked below the daily 12ema (white line) but closed back above. (support)

366.50 the daily 12ema

365.55 the low from yesterday



348.11 the recent low (resistance)





QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures broke yesterdays lows then bounced back above 267.40 the corresponding futures low

271.99 the after hours high from yesterday before futures opened

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation also looked to get underway yesterday here, with a slight break of Tuesdays lows. Watching for any follow thru (or lack thereof) today. Trading right around the daily 12ema (white line). (support)

270.34 that daily 12ema

268.07 the low from yesterday



254.26 the recent low (resistance)

273.68 the high from yesterday


279.43 open gap


Nov vix futures 3 months, daily candles Trading within yesterdays range currently, watching for which way this inside candle breaks

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Trading within a pretty tight range above the psychological 30 level, expecting this low 30s-32 range to break within the next day or 2

$DXY 3 months, daily candles Inside bar here on watch today/tomorrow as well for clues

TLT 3 months, daily candles Cant get off the lows here, so a point in the broad market Bear column. Daily RSI back to oversold levels. We saw a slight bounce at the end of Sept when this last occurred. (and a much bigger bounce back in June of this year when it happened) S&P futures vs fair value: +2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.00.The S&P 500 futures are up 2 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 3 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 113 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. There's a mostly positive disposition for equity futures this morning as Treasury yields pullback from overnight highs. The 10-yr note yield, which reached 4.18% earlier, sits at 4.13% now. The 2-yr note yield, which reached 4.62% overnight, sits at 4.58% now. Earnings news since yesterday's close has generally been positive. Tesla (TSLA), however, has been a big exception with a disappointing miss on earnings and revenue estimates. It's down roughly 5.0% in premarket action. Chinese authorities are debating shortening the coronavirus quarantine time for travelers, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Beijing is locking down some residential compounds amid rise in coronavirus cases, according to Reuters. The yen is weakening, hitting 150.09 earlier, which marks its worst level since 1990. USD/JPY -0.1% to 149.79. Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

  • 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 233,000; prior 228,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.368 mln), and October Philadelphia Fed survey ( consensus -5.0; prior -9.9)

  • 10:00 ET: September Leading Indicators ( consensus -0.3%; prior -0.3%) and September Existing Home Sales ( consensus 4.70 mln; prior 4.80 mln)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +125 bcf)

In corporate news:

  • Tesla (TSLA 210.07, -11.97, -5.39%): misses by $0.03, misses on revs; reiterates expectation of achieving 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries over multi-year horizon

  • Lam Research (LRCX 330.00, -0.08, -0.02%): beats by $0.88, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • IBM (IBM 126.39, +3.88, +3.17%): beats by $0.01, beats on revs; raises FY22 revenue growth outlook; reaffirms FCF outlook for FY22

  • Alcoa (AA 33.53, -4.09, -10.87%): misses by $0.51, misses on revs; decreases 2022 alumina and bauxite shipment projections

  • Dow (DOW 44.76, -0.37, -0.82%): misses by $0.06, beats on revs

  • American Airlines (AAL 14.39, +0.40, +2.86%): beats by $0.13, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • AT&T (T 15.99, +0.45, +2.90%): beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line

  • Allstate (ALL 121.06, -14.09, -10.43%): estimates Q3 catastrophe losses of $763 mln; provides preliminary Q3 results

  • Las Vegas Sands (LVS 35.94, +0.34, +0.96%): misses by $0.02, reports revs in-line (Harker and Bowman on the schedule today to come out and say the same thing for the 100th time)

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