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Market Rap 10/19/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles

S&P futures tested yesterdays upper range before reversing; Currently testing the lower end of yesterdays range 375.02 the corresponding futures high

368.99 the pre mkt low so far

SPY 3 months, daily candles Filled the gap from 10/6 to 10/7 before reversing and closing weaker. Lows from yesterday looking to get tested first thing, if they break then daily consolidation of this big bounce off the recent lows begins. (resistance)

375.45 the high from yesterday

378.72-379.46 after that (support)

367.52 the low from yesterday

366.14 the daily 12ema (white line)

363.97

356.96

348.11 the recent lows

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also testing yesterdays lower range 276 the corresponding futures high

269.91 the pre mkt low so far

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Pushed into the gap from 10/6 to 10/7 but didn't fill it completely before reversing. Closed above the daily 12ema (white line) but that short term momentum gauge level, along with yesterdays lows, are setting up to be tested first thing after the open. Daily consolidation of this recent bounce begins if we break those levels with some follow thru. (resistance)

277.21 yesterdays high

279.43 gap remains open

284.18 after that (support)

270.32 the daily 12ema

268.74 the low from yesterday

266.74

260.14

254.26 the recent lows

Nov. Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation continues here

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation continues here as we test that 30 psyche level from above. Still an extremely high level of volatility, so wide ranges both directions are expected.

TLT 3 months, daily candles Still continually finding new lows here as surging longer term rates cant stop wont stop

$DXY 3 months, daily candles Daily "higher low" set here yesterday at 111.77 as it pops over yesterdays highs

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update S&P futures vs fair value: -17.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -49.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 53 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 117 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Equity futures reversed earlier gains as Treasury yields inched higher. Price action reflects skittishness about rates going even higher from here after Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (2023 FOMC voter) said he believes the Fed might need to raise rates above 4.75% if there's no improvement in core inflation, according to Reuters. The 10-yr note yield is up eight basis points to 4.08% and the 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.50%. Better-than-expected quarterly results from Netflix, Procter & Gamble, ASML, Travelers, and United Airlines have mitigated some selling interest. In overseas news, the Bank of England confirmed it will sell gilts in November but said it will hold off on selling longer dated gilts this year. The UK's September CPI jumped to 10.1% year-over-year, revisiting this year's peak from July. President Biden announced the release of 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves to be delivered in December. WTI crude oil futures move higher this morning, up 1.2% to $83.08/bbl. The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index declined 4.5%, as mortgage demand hit its lowest level since 1997, according to CNBC. Other data out today includes:

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: September Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1.465 million; prior 1.575 million) and September Building Permits (Briefing.com consensus 1.550 million; prior 1.517 million)

  • 10:30 a.m. ET: Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior +9.88 million)

  • 2:00 p.m. ET: October Fed Beige Book In corporate news:

  • United Airlines (UAL 39.20, +1.95, +5.23%): beats by $0.52, beats on revs; sees Q4 adj. op margin above 2019 for the first time

  • Netflix (NFLX 271.61, +30.75, +12.77%): beats by $0.93, beats on revs, paid net adds of 2.41 mln compared to prior guidance of 1.00 mln; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus, expects paid net adds of 4.5 mln

  • Travelers (TRV 168.00, +1.23, +0.74%): beats by $0.60, beats on revs

  • ASML (ASML 420.76, +21.77, +5.46%): beats by $0.82, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line

  • Procter & Gamble (PG 131.00, +2.63, +2.05%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

  • Adobe (ADBE 298.00, +5.02, +1.71%): reaffirms Q4 targets; guides FY23 EPS and revs under expectations, ex-Figma

  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG 212.76, +19.03, +9.82%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; increases FY22 procedure guidance to 17-18% from 14.0-16.5%; lowers high end of FY22 gross margin guidance, sees gross margin of 69.0-69.5% compared to prior guidance of 69.0-70.5%

  • Generac (GNRC 123.01, -24.73, -16.74%): sees Q3 EPS and revs below consensus; lowers FY22 outlook

  • Olaplex (OLPX 5.38, -4.41, -45.05%): issues downside Q3 revenue guidance, lowers FY22 revenue and adjusted net income guidance

  • Exxon Mobil (XOM 101.15, +0.35, +0.35%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies

  • Abbott Labs (ABT 107.59, +2.61, +2.49%): beats by $0.21, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS above consensus

10 YR new high

15min / weekly


DXY pushing up

30yr mortgage testing 7%



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