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Market Rap 10/18/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke out over the last couple days of highs 374.35 the corresponding futures high

366.61 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened

SPY 3 months, daily candles Pushed back over, closed back over the daily 12ema. Gap up open ahead as the counter-trend rally gains some momentum.

(resistance)

367.98 the high from yesterday, 370.26 was Fridays high before the big give back - currently over both of those levels here in pre mkt for the gap up open set up

373.29 the 10/7 high, just above that level also

378.72-379.46 after that (support)

365.23 the daily 12ema (white line)

363.97 the low from yesterday

356.96

348.11 the recent lows

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also breaking out over the recent bounce highs from the end of last week 275.35 the pre mkt high so far

269.28 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Closed just under the 12ema (white line) yesterday, gapping up over that level/and the bounce highs from the end of last week, as we head towards the open. (resistance)

270.24 the high from yesterday, 271.81 the high from Friday - trading well over both those levels currently for the gap up open

275.15

279.43 open gap

284.18 (support)

270.11 the daily 12ema

266.74

260.14

254.26 the recent lows

Nov Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Testing the lows from Friday/Monday

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Testing the lows from yesterday currently; 30 psychological level up next if that area breaks

$DXY 3months, daily candles Still potential for a double top here as daily consolidation continues

TLT 3months, daily candles Longer term interest rates still finding new highs (as this finds more lows) - broad market ignoring the continuing weakness so far

S&P futures vs fair value: +68.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +233.80.The S&P 500 futures are up 67 points and are trading 1.8% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 228 points and are trading 2.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 475 points and are trading 1.6% above fair value. Equity futures are higher this morning thanks to carryover upside momentum from yesterday's rebound. There's some relief that bank earnings have been better-than-feared and a feeling the market was oversold on a short term basis, which adds fuel to the rally effort. The BoA Fund Manager Survey showed cash allocation is at the highest level since 2001, acting as a contrarian rebound factor. UK Prime Minister Truss has apologized for recent market volatility but indicated she does not plan to step down. Meanwhile, the Bank of England refuted an FT report about a plan to delay quantitative tightening until the Gilt market calms. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken believes China will move to annex Taiwan on a "much faster timeline" than previously expected, according to Axios. White House will likely release 10-15 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserve this week, but an export ban is not likely before November elections, according to Bloomberg. The 10-yr Treasury note yield reached 4.04% overnight, it's now at 4.00%. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.43%. In corporate news:

  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 169.49 +2.90 (+1.74%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; narrows FY22 EPS guidance; lowers FY22 revenue guidance

  • Hasbro (HAS 65.35 -2.36 (-3.49%): misses by $0.18, reports revs in-line; Reiterates full-year guidance

  • Truist (TFC 44.78 +0.35 (+0.79%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line

  • Goldman Sachs (GS 313.49 +6.78 (+2.21%): beats by $0.74, beats on revs

  • Lockheed Martin (LMT 400.10 +2.79 (+0.70%): beats by $0.15, reports revs in-line; guides FY22 revs in-line

  • Target (TGT 153.49 +4.24 (+2.84%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies

  • Matson (MATX 70.25 -0.05 (-0.07%) : guides Q3 earnings below consensus; provides additional Q3 metrics, cites lower volume in China service as a factor in a yr/yr decline in consolidated operation income

  • Microsoft (MSFT 242.00 +4.47 (+1.88%): aiming to eliminate more jobs this week, according to The Wall Street Journal

  • Nordstrom (JWN 19.55 +0.32 (+1.66%): CFO to step down; reaffirms guidance (well, we got one day of Fed member silence yesterday, at least)


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