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Market Rap 10/06/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures attempted to break over yesterdays highs but saw no follow thru; Retraced about half of yesterdays and now attempting to bounce off 5min oversold RSI conditions 374 the pre mkt low

379.77 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Saw a break of Tuesdays lows early on, but didn't get very close to filling the 10/3-10/4 gap after that; Then broke Tuesdays highs and closed back above the daily 12ema again (white line). Futures/pre mkt currently trading right in the middle of the range from the past 2 days.(resistance)

379.46 the high from yesterday

381-382ish heavier volume profile resistance comes into play (up to about 386ish)

389.31 the 9/21 high after that (support)

373.48 the daily 12ema

370.95 the low from yesterday

368.55 open gap



QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures similar look - attempted a push thru yesterdays highs straight into a reversal, gave back about half of yesterdays move, currently getting it's 5min oversold RSI bounce underway 279.38 the pre mkt low

284.54 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Got close to filling the 10/3-10/4 gap here but just missed. Then got above the 10/4 high and closed strong. Currently looking to open near the middle of yesterdays range. (resistance)

283.81 the high from yesterday (and filled the small open gap from 9/21-9/22, the day after the last FOMC release)

293.95 9/21 high after that, the high from the last FOMC day (support)

279.97 the daily 12ema

275.42 the low from yesterday

275.16 gap remains open



October Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Pushed under the lows from the past 2 days for a few hours yesterday evening; Then bounced, and currently trading back in the lower range from the past 2 days

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Staying below 30 so far; Inside bar day within yesterdays range currently

$DXY 3 months, daily candles Dollar testing it's daily 12ema (white line) and the highs from the past couple days; Broad market bulls want to see it fail up there and get turned backed. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -22.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -54.80.The S&P 500 futures are down 19 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 47 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 140 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. Equity futures indicate a lower open. The market continues to contend with concerns that it has gotten ahead of itself in expecting a Fed policy pivot. Concerns about the geopolitical scene are in play this morning after the contentious move by OPEC+ to cut production at this time. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.5% to $87.35/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 1.8% to $7.05/mmbtu. Atlanta Fed President Bostic (non FOMC voter) said he's in favor of getting rates to 4.0%-4.5% by the end of the year and added were "still in the early days of fighting inflation." He added "not so fast" as it relates to the market expecting a rate cut in 2023, according to Bloomberg. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.16% and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.77%. Market participants will receive the weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 203,000; prior 193,000) and Continuing Claims (prior 1.347 mln) at 8:30 a.m. ET. The weekly natural gas inventories (prior +103 bcf) will be out at 10:30 a.m. ET. In corporate news:

  • Pinterest (PINS 25.86 +1.23 +4.99%): upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman

  • Twitter (TWTR 50.25 -1.05 -2.05%): still negotiating terms to close deal with Elon Musk, according the The Wall Street Journal; Apollo Global Management (APO), which was looking to provide $1.0 bln for Elon Musk's Twitter buyout, is no longer in talks with Mr. Musk, according to Reuters

  • Shell plc (SHEL 51.08 -2.94 -5.44%): Q3 profit will be impacted by reduced chemical and oil refining margins and weaker natural gas trading

  • Eli Lilly (LLY 330.00 -1.78 -0.54%): receives FDA Fast Track designation for tirzepatide for the treatment of adults with obesity, or overweight with weight-related comorbidities

  • McCormick (MKC 72.99 -0.32 -0.44%): misses by $0.04, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY22 EPS guidance, revs guidance

  • Splunk (SPLK 80.01 -3.30 -3.96%): files lawsuit against Cribl, alleging patent infringement, copyright infringement, unfair competition, and other claims

  • Verizon (VZ 39.31 +0.56 +1.45%): upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer

  • Constellation Brands (STZ 241.01 +5.06 +2.14%): beats by $0.36, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS above consensus

  • Conagra (CAG 34.86 +1.06 +3.14%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance

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