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Market Rap 10/05/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures cooling off this recent bounce overnight, testing the last hourly "higher low" from mid-day yesterday 373.81 the pre mkt low

378.26 the after hours high from yesterday, before futures opened

SPY 3 months, daily candles Big continuation of the bounce yesterday, follow thru over the daily 12ema (white line). Volume profile was thin thru the range yesterday, and gets heavier again around 381-382ish. Straight bounce off the bottom, so bulls looking to set a daily "higher low" against recent lows whenever this bounce tops out (and hoping to avoid the same look as 9/6 thru 9/16).(resistance)

378 the high from yesterday

378.30 the 9/22 high

381-382ish is where a heavier volume profile resistance area comes back into play

389.31 the next major high after that (support)

372.83 the daily 12ema back underneath as support, watching today to see if bulls can avoid any red flags of too much giveback, and stay above that level

366.57 the low from yesterday

359.21

357.04


QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also seeing consolidation of yesterdays big continuation move, testing the mid-day "higher low" here as well 278.89 the pre mkt low

282.63 the after hours high from yesterday before futures opened


QQQ 3 months, daily candles Big gap up open and bounce continuation here yesterday as well, as it pushed over/closed over the daily 12ema (white line). Getting over that 9/28 high looks to break the downtrend on this timeframe, but will need to see a "higher low" followed by a "higher high" once this move tops out, to prove its more than just a deeply oversold bounce, and to avoid the look from 9/6 thru 9/16. (resistance)

282.85 the high from yesterday

283.03 the 9/22 high

283.42 small open gap

285ish heavier volume profile comes back into play

293.95 the next major level after that (support)

279.61 the daily 12ema

278.99 the low from yesterday

275.16 open gap

267.53

267.10

October Vix futures 3 months, daily candles More pullback yesterday as the broad market continued it's oversold bounce, getting about half of that move back so far today

Vix 3 months, daily candles Stayed under 30 all day yesterday, currently testing the high from yesterday of 29.62 (29.61 the high so far today). Broad market bulls want to see this fail here, or the next daily "higher low" gets set at yesterdays low of 28.56.

TLT 5 days, hourly candles and 3 months, daily candles Tightening up on the hourly timeframe.

So far failing to get over the 12ema (white line) on the daily timeframe.


$DXY 3 months, daily candles More significant pullback yesterday, getting about half that move back so far today

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -35.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -100.50.The S&P 500 futures are down 34 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 100 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 287 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. Equity futures are weaker this morning after the big rally in recent sessions. There's a feeling that the market got ahead of itself with the rebound effort and with thinking that the Fed would soften its approach soon. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 50 basis points to 3.50%, as expected, and there was some debate about a 75 basis point hike. This move follows on the heels of yesterday's decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate by only 25 basis points to 2.60%. Today's OPEC+ meeting is a focal point for market participants. The expectation is that OPEC+ will announce a production cut of 1.5 million barrels per day, according to The Wall Street Journal. Oil prices were on a tear in recent sessions but came well off their highs this morning. WTI crude oil futures, at $87.28/bbl a short time ago, are down 0.4% to $86.11/bbl. In other news, Hong Kong's Hang Seng surged 5.9% off its lowest level since late 2011 in a catch-up trade after global equity markets rallied while it was closed for a holiday on Tuesday. Treasury yields are up this morning, keeping pressure on equity futures. The 10-yr note yield is up seven basis points to 3.69% and the 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.13%. The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index showed a big 14.2% decline compared to last week's 3.7% decline, as higher mortgage rates and Hurricane Ian weighed heavily on activity. Other economic data today includes:

  • 8:15 a.m. ET: September ADP Employment Change (Briefing.com consensus 198K; Prior 132K)

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: August Trade balance (Briefing.com consensus -$67.9B; Prior -$70.6B)

  • 9:45 a.m. ET: September Final IHS Markit Services PMI (Prior 49.2)

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 56.0%; Prior 56.9%)

In corporate news:

  • Ford (F 12.53, +0.17, +1.38%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

  • Morgan Stanley (MS 82.75, -1.22, -1.45%): downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Atlantic Equities

  • Airbnb (ABNB 111.00, +0.19, +0.17%): initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein

  • TSMC (TSM 73.41, +0.60, +0.82%): Morgan Stanley names stock as top pick

  • Helen of Troy (HELE 92.00, -10.58, -10.31%): beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Schnitzer Steel (SCHN 31.70, -0.79, -2.43%): sees Q4 EPS below consensus

  • AutoZone (AZO 2,217.35, +12.32, +0.56%): authorizes additional $2.5 bln for share repurchases

  • Goldman Sachs (GS 309.92, -4.95, -1.57%): Atlantic Equities downgrades to Underweight from Neutral

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