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Market Rap 10/04/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures with a big surge over the last week of highs, as the daily oversold bounce gets underway 373.55 the pre mkt high

366.12 the corresponding futures low

SPY 3 months, daily candles Daily oversold bounce underway as we test the highs from 9/28 and push back near what's left of that open gap from 9/23. (pushed up to gap fill in pre mkt action). Today we'll watch to see if bulls can resist a giveback of half or more of this move, and put some pressure back on bears. (resistance)

368.55 the high from yesterday - trading well above there currently for the gap up open

371.89 the daily 12ema (white line) which bulls are also currently above in pre mkt

372.30 the 9/28 peak, and also trading a tad above there right now

373.44 open gap ("filled" in pre mkt)

378.30 after that (support)

359.21 the low from yesterday

357.04 Fridays low

355.08 the corresponding futures low from Sunday night

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures with a big move over yesterdays highs as well, testing the highs from 9/28 here 279.88 the pre mkt high

273.39 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Daily oversold bounce looking to get going here as well with a big gap up open ahead.(resistance)

275.16-275.19 the highs from the past 2 days, well above there for the gap up open set up

279.15 the daily 12ema (white line) looking to get tested first thing

281.25 the 9/28 high


283.42 open gap (support)

267.53 the low from yesterday

267.10 Fridays low

264.29 Sunday nights corresponding futures low

October Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Big bearish engulf candle here yesterday after backing off at last weeks highs; follow thru lower today, which is what broad market bulls want to see

Vix 6 months, daily candles Another back down here at the 35ish area last seen in May/June. Starting to see some follow thru under yesterdays lows, and under 30.

$DXY 6 months, daily candles More pullback here, and starting to resemble the pullback we saw in July

TLT 3 months, daily candles Testing daily 12ema here (white line) and so far unable to get back over. Getting over that level and seeing some follow thru would also be another welcome sign for the broad market bulls. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +61.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +233.30.The S&P 500 futures are up 61 points and are trading 1.7% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 228 points and are trading 2.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 378 points and are trading 1.3% above fair value. Equity futures are up sharply this morning as market participants look to build on yesterday's gains, aided by contrarian-minded thinking that stems from an awareness that sentiment readings denote extremely bearish views. There's also growing excitement in the market about the Fed potentially slowing the pace of its rate hikes and potentially nearing the end of its rate hike cycle. That excitement has been stoked by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which raised its cash rate by only 25 basis points, instead of the 50 basis points expected, to 2.60%. The decision was tied to a recognition that the cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time, and a desire among RBA officials to see how the prior rate increases are affecting the outlook for inflation and economic growth. The US dollar has weakened in the wake of the RBA move. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.5% to 111.19, with the euro (EUR/USD +0.6% to 0.9886) showing some strength against the greenback. Falling Treasury yields have been another supportive factor for equities. The 2-yr note yield is down seven basis points to 4.03% and the 10-yr note yield is down seven basis points to 3.58%. Gilt yields have also moved lower, driven by the news that Finance Minister Kwarteng will release his fiscal plan and forecasts from the OBR later this month instead of November 23, as previously indicated. Energy complex futures trade in mixed fashion. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.2% to $84.67/bbl and natural gas futures are down 0.3% to $6.46/mmbtu. Separately, market participants will receive the August Factory Orders report ( consensus +0.4%; prior -1.0%) and the August JOLTS Job Openings report (prior 11.239 million) at 10:00 a.m. ET. In corporate news:

  • Gilead Sciences (GILD 64.32, +2.00, +3.21%): upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan

  • Poshmark (POSH 17.57, +1.99, +12.85%): to be acquired for $17.90 per share in cash by Naver Corp., Korea's largest internet company

  • Rivian Automotive (RIVN 34.67, +2.78, +8.72%): reports Q3 production of 7,363 vehicles, deliveries of 6,584 vehicles, and says it remains on track to deliver on its 25,000 annual production guidance

  • Maravai Life Sciences (MRVI 23.00, -1.78, -7.18%): appoints William "Trey" Martin as CEO, who joins company from Danaher Corporation

  • Blackbaud (BLKB 47.61, +2.60, +5.78%): Clearlake Capital Group discloses 18.4% stake; may seek review of strategic alternatives

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