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Market Rap 10/03/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke Fridays lows before recovering, then trading higher 355.08 the corresponding futures low

359.60 the pre mkt high so far

SPY 6 months, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles A decisive break of June lows, as markets search for the next lower base of support. Falling into a light area of volume profile where it doesn't get heavier again until the 335-340ish area - the highs reached prior to the Covid sell off. (support)

357.04 the low from Friday

354.15-354.87 weekly support from Nov '20


335-340ish next area of volume profile support (resistance)

365.91 the high from Friday


QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also broke Fridays lows then bounced back above 264.29 the corresponding futures low

268.04 the pre mkt high

QQQ 6 months, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles Break of June lows here as well, as we start to test support levels last seen in October/November '20. (support)

267.10 the low from Friday

266.97 the weekly low from early Nov '20

260.11 the weekly low from Sept '20

After that, volume profile thins out significantly back to it's pre-Covid highs around the 235-240 area. (resistance)

275.19 the high from Friday


October Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Pushed over Fridays highs earlier this AM, then backed off around the highs we saw last week

Spot Vix 6 months, daily candles Testing levels of volatility last seen in May/June of this year. Until this starts to break back below 30, any broad market rally will struggle to get going [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +22.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +32.80.The S&P 500 futures are up 18 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 25 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 171 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. Equity futures indicate a higher open to start the new month following Friday's retreat. There's some mixed macro headlines in play this morning for market participants to digest. The UK's Finance Minister Kwarteng said the plan to cut taxes for high earners is going to be abandoned. That news provided some support for the pound (GBP/USD +0.3% to 1.1205) and the UK government bond market, which is also contending with S&P revising its outlook to negative on rising fiscal risks. Final September manufacturing PMI readings saw downward revisions from the preliminary estimates for the eurozone, Germany, the UK, and France. Trading was light in Asia with China closed this week for a holiday. South Korea was also closed today for a holiday. Japan's finance minister talked about intervening again to support the yen if necessary. OPEC+ is reportedly considering a production cut of over 1 million barrels per day at Wednesday's meeting, according to Bloomberg. On a related note, energy complex futures are mixed this morning. WTI crude oil futures are up 4.4% to $82.98/bbl and natural gas futures are down 3.0% to $6.57/mmbtu. In corporate news:

  • Credit Suisse (CS 3.6800 -0.24 (-6.12%): attempts to reassure investors over its financial and liquidity condition after value of credit default swaps increased, according to FT

  • Wells Fargo (WFC 40.71 +0.49 (+1.22%): upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman

  • Tesla (TSLA 251.80 -13.45 (-5.07%): reports it produced over 365,000 vehicles and delivered over 343,000 vehicles in Q3 versus an estimate for 364,000 deliveries

  • Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM 48.00 +3.38 (+7.58%): announces Sunosi meets primary endpoint demonstrating improvement in cognitive function in the SHARP trial in cognitively impaired patients with excessive daytime sleepiness associated with obstructive sleep apnea

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