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Market Rap 09/30/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures bounced off the recent lower range; Currently trading in the middle of yesterdays range 366.75 the futures/pre mkt high

361.60 the corresponding futures low

SPY 6 months, daily candles Failed to see any follow thru from the previous days bounce, and found new lows on the daily. Looking more like a bear flag than not, as we keep tapping on recent lows/June lows.(support)

359.70 yesterdays low

358.72 the pre mkt low from 9/28

354.15-354.87 some weekly support going back to Nov '20

350.51 weekly support from Nov '20 (resistance)

367.11 the high from yesterday


373.44 fills the open gap

We'd need to get thru those levels to negate that bear flag look

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures bounced off the lows from yesterday back into the middle of the range 274.97 the futures/pre mkt high

271 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 6 months, daily candles Tapping on the floor of June lows/support (after a slight break yesterday which didn't see any follow thru); daily bear flag look (support)

268.84 the low from yesterday

266.97-267.07 weekly support from late Oct/early Nov of '20

260.11 weekly support from Sept '20 (resistance)

276.25 the high from yesterday


282.52 the daily 12ema (white line)

Bulls would need to push over those levels to negate this daily bear flag look

VIX October Futures 3 months, daily candles Inside bar day yesterday, inside bar so far today, as it hangs out around the recent highs and decides if it wants another breakout upwards

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles The last few days of action have stayed in a tighter range, within Wednesdays wide range. Watching to see which way that breaks to see if the broad market takes the next leg lower, or if bulls are able to play some tremendous defense, and bounce around these June lows.

$DXY 3 months, daily candles The dollar sold off along with the broad market yesterday, which is different than the pattern we've been seeing lately.

Seeing a bounce today, and regaining about half of yesterdays slide here.

TLT 3 months, daily candles The oversold bounce here held up yesterday, and currently is back testing the highs from Wednesday [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.50.The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 9 points and are trading roughly in-line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 6 points and are trading slightly below fair value. Equity futures are mixed ahead of the latest inflation reading this morning, the August PCE Price Index, out at 8:30 a.m. ET. A slight drop in Treasury yields is providing a modicum of support. The 10-yr note yield is down six basis points to 3.69% and the 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.15%. Global recession/inflation worries are in play this morning after the Eurozone CPI showed a record 10.0% increase year-over-year in September versus 9.1% in August. The latest reading is solidifying expectations that the ECB will raise rates by 75 basis points at its October meeting. The Reserve Bank of India voted 5-to-1 to raise its repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90%, as expected. In other central bank news, San Francisco Fed President Daly (non FOMC voter) said that the Fed needs to slow the U.S. economy to bring down inflation but does not need to trigger a recession, according to Reuters. She thinks getting to 4.50%-5.0% and holding there through the end of 2023 could get inflation in check. Separately, Russian President Putin will formally annex 18% of Ukraine today, according to CNN. Hurricane Ian is expected to make a second landfall in South Carolina later today. Energy complex futures are mixed. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.4% to $80.85/bbl while natural gas futures trade up 1.2% to $6.95/mmbtu. Today's economic data includes:

  • 8:30 ET: August Personal Income ( consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%), Personal Spending ( consensus 0.2%; prior 0.1%), PCE Prices ( consensus 0.2%; prior -0.1%), and core PCE Prices ( consensus 0.4%; prior 0.1%)

  • 9:45 ET: September Chicago PMI ( consensus 51.9; prior 52.2)

  • 10:00 ET: Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment ( consensus 59.5; prior 59.5)

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