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Market Rap 09/28/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke yesterdays lows overnight (and June lows), and saw more follow thru early this AM; Currently trading around those lows from yesterday. 358.72 the pre mkt low

365.20 the after hours high from yesterday before futures opened

SPY 6 months, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles Broke under June lows yesterday, zooming out to the weekly to find the next levels of support. We're starting to get into a volume profile area on the weekly timeframe that doesn't have much support until the old pre-Covid high around 335-340ish. (support)

360.87 the low from yesterday

354.15-354.87 some weekly support from Nov '20

350.51 also from Nov '20

335-340ish that volume profile support which was the breakout area that started in Nov '20 (resistance)

370.42-370.62 the highs from the past 3 days

373.44 open gap

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Broke under yesterdays lows/recent lows overnight, and saw follow thru earlier this AM which re-tested the June lows 269.96 the pre mtk low

276 the corresponding futures high from yesterday evening

QQQ 6 months, daily candles Still above the June lows here which is different than the S&P. Those lows got tested in futures action and held up on the first pass. With the daily RSI oversold a bounce somewhere in this area seems like a decent probability, but watching to see if we need to flush those June lows first, like the S&P. (support)

272.02-272.11 the lows from the past 3 days, trading right around those levels currently

269.28 the June lows

267.07 some weekly support going back to Oct '20

260.11 going back to Sept '20 (resistance)

280.21 the high from yesterday

283.03 after that

Oct Vix futures 3 months, daily candles More upside continuation here as we see the highest levels of vol since June

Spot Vix 6 months, daily candles Testing May/June highs

TLT 3yr weekly candles and 15yr monthly candles Testing levels last seen in Dec '13 with RSI oversold on all timeframes up thru the monthly. A big bounce is overdue, but currently this remains in falling knife mode.

$DXY 5 days, hourly candles and 15yr monthly candles Still trading up around recent nosebleed highs with RSI overbought up thru the monthly timeframe - the last time this occurred was March of 2015 [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -24.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -130.80.The S&P 500 futures are down 24 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 132 points and are trading 1.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 104 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. Equity futures indicate a lower open, but came off their worst levels of the morning following a pullback in Treasury yields from overnight highs. The 10-yr note yield, which reached 4.01% earlier, fell to 3.89% immediately following the Bank of England announcing a plan to conduct temporary purchases of longer-dated gilts "to restore orderly market conditions." The 10-yr note yield has been inching back towards overnight highs, sitting at 3.95% currently, keeping pressure on investor sentiment. Notwithstanding the BoE announcement, GBP/USD is down 1.4% to 1.0575. On a related note, the IMF came out against the policy moves in the UK, urging them to re-think tax cuts indicating the policy risks increasing inflation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (not an FOMC voter) said the Fed wants to bring inflation down "as gently as possible" to avoid a downturn, according to Reuters. Hurricane Ian is expected to hit Florida as a category four storm today. In corporate news:

  • Apple (AAPL 145.93, -5.83, -3.84%): ends plans for iPhone 14 production increase as demand declines, according to Bloomberg

  • Netflix (NFLX 225.39, +1.03, +0.46%): upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities

  • Biogen (BIIB 290.00, +92.21, +46.62%): reports Lecanemab confirmatory Phase 3 Clarity AD study met primary endpoint, showing highly statistically significant reduction of clinical decline in large global clinical study of 1,795 participants with early Alzheimer's disease

  • Lyft (LYFT 13.75, -0.41, -2.90%): slides on reports it is freezing all U.S. hiring through the end of 2022, according to NY Post

  • Progress Software (PRGS 41.05, -0.52, -1.25%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides NovQ EPS in-line, revs in-line, but mid-points are below consensus

  • Thor Industries (THO 74.34, +2.59, +3.61%): beats by $1.26, beats on revs

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