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Market Rap 09/27/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures testing the upper end of yesterdays range 369.60 the pre mkt high so far

363.37 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened

SPY 6 months, daily candles Broke Fridays lows by a tad yesterday but saw no follow thru. SO far holding up above the June lows as the daily RSI pushes into oversold territory. The last couple days of highs look to be tested first thing, getting over those with some follow thru would get the daily bounce underway. (support)

363.03 the low from yesterday

362.17 the June 17th low

354.15-354.87, 350.51 some weekly support from Nov of '20 (resistance)

370.21-370.62 the highs from the past 2 days

373.44 open gap

378.30 after that

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also testing yesterdays highs 278.86 the pre mkt high

273.46 the after hours low from yesterday, before futures opened

QQQ 6 months, daily candles Held above Fridays low and filled the first overhead gap, before giving a lot back into the close. Daily RSI just clicked oversold here as well, as bulls look to play some defense above the June 16th lows. (support)

273.56 the low from yesterday

272.02 Fridays low

269.28 the June 16th low

266.97 some support from Nov '20

260.11 from Sept of '20 (resistance)

279.49 the high from yesterday

283.03 after that

283.42 open gap

287.24 the daily 12ema overhead after that

October Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Some giveback here to give bulls some hope they can get a rally going

Spot Vix 3months, daily candles Giving back some of yesterdays move, but broad market bulls want to see a break/follow thru under yesterdays lows of 29.83, to have more confidence it wont just be another quick rug pull

$DXY 3months, daily candles Some slight cool off, but not much yet considering the rocket moves we've seen here [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +51.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +184.50.The S&P 500 futures are up 49 points and are trading 1.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 182 points and are trading 1.6% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 318 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value. Equity futures are behaving better this morning, leaving the cash market poised for a higher start. Market participants are getting some relief from the moderation in Treasury yields, price action in the currency market, and strength in the mega cap stocks. The 2-yr note yield is down ten basis points to 4.21% and the 10-yr note yield is down six basis points to 3.81%. The US Dollar Index is down 0.5% to 113.57 with GBP/USD +1.2% to 1.0811 and EUR/USD +0.4% to 0.9644. There's been some mixed Fed speak in play for participants to digest this morning. Chicago Fed President Evans (not an FOMC voter), who is retiring from his position in early 2023, acknowledged being a little nervous about the Fed raising rates too much, too fast, according to CNBC. Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) said that a restrictive policy will be needed and for longer to ensure that inflation expectations do not move up and that inflation moves back down. Energy complex futures move higher ahead of the open. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.7% to $78.00/bbl and natural gas futures are up 0.9% to $7.08/mmbtu. Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

  • August Durable Orders ( consensus -0.1%; prior 0.0.%) and Durable Orders, Excluding Transportation ( consensus 0.3%; prior 0.3%) at 8:30 a.m. ET

  • July FHFA Housing Price Index (prior 0.1%) and July S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index ( consensus 17.0%; prior 18.6%) at 9:00 a.m. ET

  • September Consumer Confidence ( consensus 105.0; prior 103.2) and August New Home Sales ( consensus 500,000; prior 511,000) at 10:00 a.m. ET

In corporate news:

  • Biogen (BIIB 198.61, +2.86, +1.5%): agrees to pay $900 mln to resolve allegations regarding false claims to Medicare and Medicaid, according to DOJ

  • United Natural Foods (UNFI 39.50, +1.06, +2.8%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Tesla (TSLA 282.13, +6.12, +2.2%): expects high volume of deliveries at end of Q3.

  • Rio Tinto (RIO 52.39, +1.17, +2.3%): to begin underground mining at Kennecott copper operations

  • Splunk (SPLK 80.11, +0.73, +0.9%): CFO has accepted a position at a leading pre-IPO semiconductor company; company also reaffirms Q3 and FY23 guidance

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