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Market Rap 09/22/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures took the next leg lower under yesterdays lows, then saw an hourly/4hr oversold bounce to cool down the RSI on those timeframes ahead of the open. Currently trading around where we closed yesterday. 373.90 the corresponding futures low

380.32 the futures/pre mkt high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Big flush by the end of the day yesterday, after a rally attempt following the FOMC decision was reversed. Heading into the next areas of support; June lows all that's left after that.(support)

377.38 the low from yesterday, trading a bit under there currently for a small gap down open (which was much larger at certain points last night, before the oversold bounce hourly/4hr bounce)


369.38 open gap

362.17 the June lows (resistance)

389.31 the high from yesterday

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Big flush under yesterdays lows here as well, big bounce off hourly and 4hr oversold RSI conditions, cooling off those timeframes 280 the corresponding futures low

285.70 the futures/pre mkt high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Flush under the last few days of lows on heavy volume, following the failed rally attempt post FOMC. Next levels of support were tested in futures action, watching for a re-test in regular hours trading. (support)

283.42 the low from yesterday, trading right around there currently

279.80-280.02 support from mid-July


269.28 the June lows (resistance)

293.95 the high from yesterday - rally attempt reversed just ahead of the daily 12ema (white line) at 294.34

October Vix futures 3months, daily candles Pushing over recent highs, and keeping this daily uptrend look going - within wide ranges and moves

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Big pop following the FOMC to 30.18 - then that was reversed in short order on the broad market rally attempt. Hanging out around recent highs in that 27-28 area it's liked so much. Wide moves and ranges both directions should be expected.

TLT 3 months, daily candles Rates actually backed off some and this got it's daily bounce going following the FOMC

$DXY 3months, daily candles King dollar found new highs and continues to look for heads to lop off [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.80. The S&P 500 futures are down 2 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 16 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 18 points and are trading slightly above fair value. Equity futures are little changed from the flat line as participants process the Fed's latest moves and guidance. Rates are still moving higher from here and the Fed is signaling that they will not come down anytime soon. Many other central banks are following suit. The Swiss National Bank announced a 75-basis point rate hike to 0.5%. That key policy rate had been negative since 2015. Not long ago, the Bank of England raised its bank rate by 50 basis points to 2.25% with three policymakers voting for a 75-bps increase. Norway's Norges Bank raised rates by 50 basis points to 2.25%, as expected, but said future rate hikes would be more gradual. Separately, the Bank of Japan left its key rate unchanged at -0.1% and Governor Kuroda said the bank won't be raising rates for some time. In related news, the Ministry of Finance has intervened to support the yen (USD/JPY -1.8% to 141.34). Rising Treasury yields continue to pressure investor sentiment. The 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.55% and the 2-yr note yield is up ten basis points to 4.08%. Market participants will receive the Q2 Current Account Balance report ( consensus -$260.0 billion; prior -$291.4 billion) and weekly initial jobless claims ( consensus 220,000; prior 213,000) and continuing claims (prior 1.403 million) at 8:30 a.m. ET, the August Leading Economic Index ( consensus -0.1%; prior -0.4%) at 10:00 a.m. ET, and weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories (prior +73 bcf) at 10:30 a.m. ET. In corporate news:

  • Eli Lilly (LLY 301.10 +4.62 (+1.56%): UBS upgraded to Buy from Hold; receives FDA approval for Retevmo

  • Block (SQ 58.29 -1.16 (-1.95%): downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho

  • NIKE (NKE 100.19 +0.40 (+0.40%): initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts

  • Target (TGT 158.55 -0.48 (-0.30%): will introduce holiday savings earlier than ever, starting with the "biggest Target Deal Days event yet" - expects to hire up to 100,000 seasonal team members

  • Accenture (ACN 264.00 -1.42 (-0.54%): beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS below consensus; raises dividend; approves $3.0 bln of additional share repurchase authority

  • Darden Restaurants (DRI 128.00 -3.28 (-2.50%): reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance, revs guidance; Q1 comps +4.2%

  • FactSet (FDS 425.00 -5.45 (-1.27%): misses by $0.08, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs above consensus

  • Salesforce (CRM 150.99 +3.36 (+2.28%): targets $50 bln in revs by FY26, a 17% CAGR; expects $31 bln in revs for FY23

  • Lennar (LEN 75.00 -0.92 (-1.21%): beats by $0.32, misses on revs, deliveries increased 13%; Sees Q4 new orders of 14-15K and deliveries of 20-21K

  • KB Home (KBH 27.40 -0.62 (-2.21%): beats by $0.19, misses on revs, homes delivered increased 6% yr/yr; expects housing revs of $1.95-2.05 bln in Q4

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