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Market Rap 09/21/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / VIX SPY 5 days, hourly candlesS&P futures mostly sideways ahead of the FOMC rate decision/Powell presser 382.79 the corresponding futures low

385.32 the pre mkt low

SPY 3 months, daily candles A break of the previous 2 days of lows saw no follow thru, and reversed back into the middle of the days range by the close. Expect whippage following the FOMC rate decision (2et) and Powell presser (2:30et) thru the close. (support)

381.20 the low from yesterday

380.54-380.66

378.57 open gap

370.18-371.04 (resistance)

386.12 the high from yesterday

388.55

388.78 open gap

394.04 the daily 12ema

395.96-396.20

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures sideways ahead of FOMC/Powell 289.41 the after hours high from yesterday before futures opened

287.74 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Inside bar day here yesterday, looking for a break today, likely following the FOMC (resistance)

291.07-291.21

296.30 the daily 12ema (white line)

296.53-296.93

303.02 (support)

285.62-286.38 the low range from the past 3 days

279.80-280.02

275.78

October Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Another day seeing the upper end of the recent 27-28 range, another failure to get thru. If it were to finally push thru that upper level I'd expect decent follow thru up to 30ish or so.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Similar idea here - multiple failures at the upper 27-28 area, but staying sticky and refusing to back down much ahead of the Fed. See follow thru 28 I'd expect 30+ to come quickly; Follow thru to the downside under the 25-26 area I'd think low 20s would come quickly as well.


$DXY 3 months, daily candles King dollar starting to peek thru multi-decade highs again

TLT 3 months, daily candles Finding more lows, and prices not seen since the start of 2014, as rates rise

TLT 15yr, monthly candles This shows how unprecedented the sell off in bonds has been - the monthly RSI is oversold - which has never happened in the past 15 years+

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.30.The S&P 500 futures are up 10 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 4 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 88 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. Equity futures are in the green but little changed from the flat line. There's not a lot of conviction ahead of the FOMC decision at 2:00 p.m. ET. The focal point for participants will be the updated terminal rate (from 3.80%) in the Summary of Economic Projections. In other central bank news, there was continued chatter about Japan intervening in the currency market to strengthen the yen ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting Thursday. The Asia Development Bank lowered its 2022 growth forecast for China to 3.3% from 5.0% and cut the outlook for 2023 to 4.3% from 5.2%. Separately, the British government announced a cap on electricity and gas prices for businesses that will be effective from October 1 through March 31. Russian President Putin announced a partial mobilization of troops in his country's campaign in Ukraine, boosting the price of oil. WTI crude oil futures are up 2.5% to $86.05/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 4.6% to $8.07/mmbtu. Treasury yields are moderating this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.95% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.54%. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index showed a total increase of 3.8% versus last week's 1.2% decline. Other economic data released today includes August Existing Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 4.70 million; prior 4.81 million) at 10:00 a.m. ET, weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior +2.44 million barrels) at 10:30 a.m. ET. The FOMC rate hike decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections are out at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. In corporate news:

  • Stitch Fix (SFIX 4.4500, -0.27, -5.72%): misses by $0.26, misses on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus

  • General Mills (GIS 76.91, +1.50, +1.99%): beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS above consensus

  • Estee Lauder (EL 243.70, +4.20, +1.75%): upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs

  • Coty (COTY 8.09, +0.30, +3.85%): set out comprehensive strategy to double skincare sales by FY25; sees FY23 EPS in line with consensus

  • Cisco (CSCO 41.80, -0.78, -1.83%): downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays

  • Micron (MU 49.47, -1.33, -2.62%): downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho


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