Market Rap 07/28/22 by CTG
SPY / QQQ / Vix
SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures cooling off some, in the upper third of yesterdays big range 399.19 the corresponding futures/pre mkt low
401.10 the after hours high from yesterday before futures opened
SPY 3 mouths, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles Strong bounce off the daily 12ema/50 day MA and higher recent highs found post FOMC. New daily "higher low" set at 389.95. Daily uptrend/weekly downtrend in play. Pushing over the 12ema on the weekly timeframe. (resistance)
402.88 the high from yesterday
409.50ish area is where the next bigger band of volume profile starts to come in
417.44 the last weekly "lower high" and anything under there keeps the weekly downtrend in place (support)
394.05 the low from yesterday
391.71 the daily 12ema
391.10 the 50 day MA
389.95 the new daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to defend to keep the daily uptrend intact
QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures seeing a bit more consolidation off yesterdays highs 303.57 the corresponding futures/pre mkt low
306.81 the after hours high from yesterday before futures opened
QQQ 3 months, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles Pushed up to test recent resistance from last Friday and stopped a penny short. New daily "higher low" set, in the context of a daily uptrend. Pushed back over the 12ema on the weekly timeframe, as it heads to test the last weekly "lower high", in the context of the weekly downtrend. (resistance)
308.54 yesterdays high
308.55 the high from last Friday
314.56 after that, weekly downtrend stays in place if bulls fail to punch thru there (support)
298.46 the low from yesterday
297.64 the daily 12ema
293.54 the new daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to stay anywhere above to keep the daily uptrend intact
293.06 the 50 day MA
August Vix futures 3months, daily candles Daily bounce failed to last more than one day, then found lower lows
Spot Vix 3months, daily candles Next daily "lower high" set at 25.31 Heading back to test recent lows
https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -15.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -110.40.The S&P 500 futures are down 13 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 90 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 64 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.
Amid a flood of earnings since yesterday's close, the market is poised for a weaker open this morning. Market participants are seemingly concentrating on disappointing guidance from the likes of Meta Platforms (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Best Buy (BBY).
Also, there's some contentions that the post-FOMC rally yesterday was overdone.
In other developments, Senators Manchin and Schumer have reached an agreement to vote on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The bill will reduce deficit by $306 billion with 15% minimum corporate tax, invest in the technologies needed for all fuel types -- from hydrogen, nuclear, renewables, fossil fuels and energy storage. Also, it extends ACA subsidies and allows Medicare to negotiate prescription drugs and closes the carried interest loophole.
In addition, the Senate passed a long-awaited $280 billion bill, which includes $52 billion for semiconductor manufacturing, to help the U.S. fend off competition from China. On a related note, President Biden is scheduled to speak with President Xi at 8:30 a.m. ET.
That call will start at the same time that the Advanced Q2 GDP report will be released. Market participants are anxious to see if the report will mark the second straight contraction in GDP.
The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 2.96% while the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 2.77%. n corporate news:
Meta Platforms (META 162.72, -6.86, -4.1%): misses by $0.09, reports revs in-line, DAUs increased 3%; guides Q3 revs below consensus, lowers 2022 expense guidance; announces CFO transition
Ford (F 14.07, +0.88, +6.7%): beats by $0.24, beats on revs; co raises quarterly dividend by 50% to $0.15/sh, new yield is 4.6%
Qualcomm (QCOM 148.25, -5.17, -3.4%): beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs below consensus
Merck (MRK 91.75, +0.52, +0.6%): beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS below consensus, raises revs in-line
Pfizer (PFE 52.40, +0.85, +1.7%): beats by $0.26, beats on revs; reaffirms FY22 EPS guidance, revs guidance
Etsy (ETSY 102.87, +7.37, +7.7%): beats by $0.19, beats on revs; GMS in line with guidance; guides Q3 revs in-line
Teladoc (TDOC 32.40, -10.84, -25.1%): beats by $0.15, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; reaffirms FY22 revs guidance
Lam Research (LRCX 462.00, -4.66, -1.0%): beats by $1.50, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
ServiceNow (NOW 419.89, -28.71, -6.4%): beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line
Columbia Sportswear (COLM 73.50, -1.19, -1.6%): beats by $0.08, misses on revs; guides FY22 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus due to macroeconomic conditions
O'Reilly Auto (ORLY 671.90, -17.50, -2.5%): misses by $0.21, reports revs in-line; cuts FY22 EPS, revs, comps guidance
Best Buy (BBY 71.75, -2.74, -3.7%): expects Q2 FY23 comparable sales1 to decline approximately 13%, with revenue approximately 7.5% higher than pre-pandemic Q2 FY20; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Honeywell (HON 185.70, +2.04, +1.1%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS in-line, revs in-line; names Vimal Kapur as COO effective immediately
Southwest Air (LUV 38.40, -2.37, -5.8%): beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line
Spirit Airlines (SAVE 25.27, +0.91, +4.0%): has terminated the merger agreement with Frontier Group (ULCC); JetBlue Airways and Spirit Airlines announce that their boards of directors have approved a definitive merger agreement under which JetBlue will acquire Spirit for $33.50/share in cash
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK 101.26, -16.19, -13.8%): misses by $0.36, misses on revs; slashed FY22 EPS below consensus