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Market Rap 07/26/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures testing yesterdays lower range 393.65 the corresponding futures/pre mkt low

396.17 was the after hours high from yesterday, before futures opened

SPY 3 months, daily candles Threatening daily consolidation ahead of the FOMC tomorrow, but so far still holding the previous days low and avoiding it; while staying above the 50 day MA (blue line) (resistance)

396.47 the inside bar high from yesterday

400.18 next

401.44 fills the gap from 6/9-6/10

409.50ish is where the next chunk of volume profile comes in at (support)

393.21 the inside bar low from yesterday

392.75 next

391.14 the 50 day MA

389.85 the daily 12ema

385.39 next

380.54 after that

378.57 open gap

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures trying to hold above the lows from yesterday 298.31 the futures low

300.84 the after hours high from yesterday before futures opened

QQQ 3months, daily candles Daily consolidation underway here, as the bulls will look to try and stay above the 12ema (white line) and the 50 day MA (blue line) to keep the pullback healthier. If they can't do that, there's still plenty of room to set a "higher low" anywhere above 279.80 to keep the daily uptrend intact. (still a weekly downtrend, however)(support)

298.22 the low from yesterday

296.26 the 12ema

292.90 the 50 day MA

291.47 some volume profile support

288.20 next

287.56 small open gap

279.80 the last daily "higher low"(resistance)

302.50 the high from yesterday

308.55 next

311.72-312.35 after that

314.56 the spot bulls will need to push over to break the weekly downtrend

Aug VIX 3 month, daily candles Further downside continued yesterday, even with parts of the broad market seeing daily consolidation. Inside bar day so far today, as volatility bulls will hope to get over yesterdays high and finally see a daily bounce get underway

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Daily bounce started yesterday but gave almost all of the move back by the close; Inside bar day so far today, as it trades in a tight range

$DXY 3 months, daily candles The dollar starting it's first daily bounce since consolidating off multi year highs [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -14.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -64.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 42 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are 109 down points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Futures for the major indices are weaker this morning following a flurry of earnings news since yesterday's close. The profit warning from Walmart (WMT 119.89, -12.13, -9.2%) seems to be taking precedence as a sentiment driver, as well as relatively lackluster guidance in general from other companies. Today starts the two-day FOMC meeting. Market participants are expecting a 75 basis point rate hike Wednesday but continue to mull uncertainty about the Fed's guidance after that decision. In other news, yesterday President Biden said he expects to speak with Chinese President Xi this week, but noted that no meeting is set up yet. On a related note, The New York Times reports that the Biden administration has concerns that China could take some potential action in Taiwan in the next 18 months. Treasury yields are on a decline ahead of the open. The 2-yr note yield is down five basis points to 2.98% while the 10-yr note yield is down six basis points to 2.75%. In corporate news:

  • Walmart (WMT 119.89, -12.13, -9.2%): lowers profit outlook for Q2 (Jul) and FY23 (Jan); guides Q2 and FY23 revs above consensus, elevated by inflation; reiterates US comps, excluding fuel, of about +3% in 2H23; guides Q2 adjusted EPS below consensus; trims its FY23 adjusted EPS outlook

  • General Motors (GM 33.94, -0.58, -1.7%): misses by $0.18, beats on revs; reaffirms FY22 EPS and EBIT guidance

  • Coca-Cola (KO 62.99, +0.80, +1.3%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS in-line

  • 3M (MMM 142.11, +7.99, +6.0%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; lowers outlook

  • McDonald's (MCD 250.25, -0.13, -0.1%): beats by $0.08, misses on revs

  • UPS (UPS 184.25, -3.66, -2.0%): beats by $0.13, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY22 revs guidance, raises targeted share repurchases to $3 bln for 2022

  • F5 Networks (FFIV 166.07, +11.66, +7.6%): beats by $0.34, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; announces an additional $1 bln for its share repurchase program

  • Alibaba (BABA 105.03, +3.97, +3.9%): pursues primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange

  • Whirlpool (WHR 167.01, +2.36, +1.4%): beats by $0.65, misses on revs; guides FY22 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

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