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Market Rap 07/21/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures trading sideways in yesterdays range, after a test of yesterdays highs earlier this AM 395.95 the corresponding futures high

393.13 the corresponding futures low

SPY 3months, daily candles More follow thru over/another close over the 50 day MA (blue line). Trying to push into the gap left from 6/9-6/10, and get over this last chunk of volume profile from then. (resistance)

396.26 the high from yesterday

396.71 the weekly 12ema

401.44 fills the 6/9 gap

409 area the next chunk of volume profile comes in

417.44 the last weekly "lower high", anything under there on this bounce keeps the downtrend intact on that timeframe (support)

391.15 the 50 day MA

391.03 the low from yesterday

385.64 the daily 12ema


380.54 next

378.57 open gap


QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures trading sideways in the upper third of yesterdays range 301.50 the corresponding futures low

303.99 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Nice continuation of the new daily uptrend, another close over the 50 day MA, over the weekly 12ema. Anything under 314.56 on this bounce is a weekly lower high, in the context of the weekly downtrend. (resistance)

304.24 the high from yesterday

309.05 next


314.56 after that (support)

297.93 the low from yesterday

292.50 the 50 day MA

291.99 the daily 12ema



287.56 small open gap

279.80 the last daily "higher low" with plenty of room to set another higher low anywhere above that level, once daily consolidation of this move begins

Inside bars from yesterday broke bearish, testing the lows from this week currently

Spot Vix 3months, daily candles Broke the lows going back to June without much follow thru yet, as it flirts with testing the lower 20s area, for the first time since April [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.20.The S&P 500 futures are down 8 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 3 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 109 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Futures for the major indices are mixed with mixed reactions to a lot of earnings reports since yesterday's close. There's some central bank news in play this morning with market participants waiting on the ECB decision at 8:15 a.m. ET. The ECB is expected to raise its key lending rates by 25 basis points, although there has been some chatter that a 50 basis point increase could also be discussed. In either case, this will be the ECB's first rate hike in 11 years. Central bank outlier, the Bank of Japan, announced no change in its monetary policy. Its key lending rate remains unchanged at -0.1%. Japan's central bank also lowered its GDP forecast to 2.4% from 2.9% while raising its inflation forecast to 1.3% from 0.9%. Russia resumed gas flows to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 but at reduced volumes seen before the scheduled maintenance. Italian Prime Minister Draghi resigned after he was unable to resume a coalition government, setting the stage for early elections. Energy complex futures have made big moves to the downside. WTI crude oil futures are down 4.8% to $95.10/bbl. Unleaded gasoline futures are down 6.2% to $3.07/gal. Natural gas futures are down 3.8% to $7.60/mmbtu. Separately, cryptocurrencies are also under pressure following Tesla's disclosure that it converted 75% of its Bitcoin holdings to fiat currency. The weakness, though, comes after a big move to the upside in recent weeks. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.25% while the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.05%. In corporate news:

  • Tesla (TSLA 761.87, +19.37, +2.6%): beats by $0.46, reports revs in-line, reaffirms expectation to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries over multi-year horizon

  • United Airlines (UAL 38.59, -3.09, -7.4%): misses by $0.45, reports revs in-line; continues to expect to be profitable for FY22; provides quarterly, FY22, and FY23 outlook: expects no more than ~8% capacity in FY23 compared to 2019

  • Microsoft (MSFT 260.13, -2.14, -0.8%): eliminating several open job listings, according to Bloomberg

  • Travelers (TRV 157.00, -1.20, -0.8%): beats by $0.60, beats on revs

  • CSX (CSX 30.96, +1.23, +4.1%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs

  • SAP SE (SAP 87.90, -4.43, -4.8%): misses by €0.12, beats on revs; updates guidance; announces further share repurchase program

  • Carnival Corp (CCL 9.80, -1.29, -11.6%): prices offering of 102,139,621 shares of common stock at $9.95 per share

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