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Market Rap 06/28/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke yesterdays lows by .06, straight into a bounce to test yesterdays highs 387.38 the corresponding futures low

391.52 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Some mild consolidation of the recent bounce off the bottom yesterday. Futures action has us shaping up to test those highs from yesterday first thing. Any consolidation above the daily 12ema (white line) keeps it healthier. Weekly downtrend in play, looking for a weekly "lower high" anywhere under 417.44. (resistance)

391.36 the high from yesterday

395.78 next

401.44 open gap

402.28 the weekly 12ema

404.72 the 50 day MA (support)

387.44 the low from yesterday

384.13 the daily 12ema

381.37 next

378.83 open gap

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures a bit weaker after testing yesterdays lows last night; Bounce off those lows has only gotten about halfway thru yesterdays RTH range 291.29 the corresponding futures low

295 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Daily bounce still underway here as well, as it heads up to attempt a challenge of the 50 day MA. Looking at the past couple months, this current distance from that 50 day MA is about as close as it's gotten. Looking for a weekly "lower high" anywhere under 314.56, in the context of the weekly downtrend. (resistance)

296.58 the high from yesterday

299.23 open gap

304.34 the 50 day MA

304.66 the weekly 12ema (support)

291.29 the low from yesterday

287.62 the daily 12ema

287.50 the Friday low

285.72 open gap

280.31 after that

277.19 next open gap

July Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Steady vol crush continues

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Testing the lows from the past couple days Favoring a rebound bias 28-Jun-22 07:56 ET Market is Closed [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +17.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +22.10. The S&P 500 futures are up 22 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 55 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 197 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. A positive bias has taken root in the futures market, aided by reports that China has shortened its quarantine period for inbound visitors and that Shanghai and Beijing reported zero COVID cases for the first time since February. Another support factor includes several banks, Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) among them, announcing dividend increases and/or share buyback programs following the Fed's stress test. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Citigroup (C) left their dividend plans unchanged. The reopening optimism surrounding China has helped underpin oil prices ($111.27, +1.70, +1.5%), which have also been bolstered by a Reuters report indicating Saudi Arabia and the UAE have limited spare capacity to boost output. Rising oil prices aren't helping to assuage headline inflation pressures any more than Nike's (NKE) inventory surge and fiscal Q1 revenue warning, and ECB President Lagarde suggesting the ECB could move faster on rate hikes if needed, are helping to assuage concerns about a broader earnings slowdown. Nonetheless, market participants seem to be favoring a quarter-end rebound bias based on rebalancing activity following a rough second quarter performance for the stock market. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.13%. The 10-yr note yield is up five basis points to 3.24%. In corporate news:

  • Nike (NKE 108.19, -2.31, -2.1%): beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line, gross margin decreased by 80 bps; Guides AugQ revenue below consensus; Authorizes new, four-year $18 bln share repurchase program for Class B common stock

  • Spirit Airlines (SAVE 23.49, +0.92, +4.1%): JetBlue Airways (JBLU 8.74, -0.02, -0.2%) increases offer to acquire SAVE; adds ticking fee; increases reverse breakup fee and accelerated prepayment to $2.50/sh

  • Robinhood Markets (HOOD 8.81, -0.31, -3.4%): FTX CEO said the company is not having any active M&A conversations with Robinhood, according to MarketWatch

  • Morgan Stanley (MS 79.94, +2.50, +3.2%): increases quarterly dividend by 11% to $0.775/share; authorizes multi-year repurchase program for up to $20 bln in common stock

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