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Market Rap 06/21/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures pushed over Thursdays/Friday's RTH highs over the long weekend; Currently testing a breakdown area from pre market Thursday 373.06 the corresponding futures/pre mkt high

Sunday evening futures action low corresponds to about 365ish

SPY 3 months, daily candles After more new lows were found last Friday, we saw limited follow thru and a close around the breakeven level, with a doji candle signaling a potential short term reversal. An open, and most importantly a close above 365.86, would confirm, and start shaping up a daily bounce. Lots of work for bulls to put in with daily and weekly downtrends in play, and plenty of resistance overhead. (support)

362.17 the low from Friday and first support on this timeframe

If that area ultimately fails, the weekly volume profile really thins out and until 340-345ish, and we're talking about testing the pre-Covid highs area (resistance)

369.38 the high from Friday - trading over there now for a small gap up open that's shaping up

370.94 the high from Thursday, trading right around there currently

372.12 small open gap

383.90 was last Wednesdays post-Fed high

386.04 the daily 12ema (white line)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures have also pushed over Thursday/Fridays RTH highs 280.25 the corresponding futures/pre mkt high from earlier this AM

274ish the corresponding futures low from Sunday evening

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Bit of a different look here on Friday than SPY; held Thursdays low, and saw a brief push over Fridays high that filled the small gap from Wed/Thurs. Daily and weekly downtrends in play so lots of resistance and work for bulls ahead. (resistance)

277.19 the high from Friday, currently trading a bit above those levels for the small gap up open

286.83 last Wednesdays post-Fed high

287.20 the daily 12ema (white line) (support)

270.51 the low from Friday

269.28 last Thursdays low

266.97 the low from the week of 11/2/20

280.11 the low from the week of 9/21/20

July Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Futures action over the long weekend saw a steady back off of the big vol spike from last Thursday, nearing a full retrace of that surge

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Trading currently near last Thurs/Fri lows, as we test that 30 area from above S&P futures vs fair value: +50.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +126.90.The S&P 500 futures are up 53 points and are trading 1.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 156 points and are trading 1.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 392 points and are trading 1.4% above fair value. The healthy bid in the futures market follows on the heels of steep losses for the major indices last week that were the worst since March 2020. In brief, it is a rebound effort for a deeply oversold market. Entering today, the major indices are down 9.4-11.7% for the month. Market participants appear to be looking through negative headline developments, like reports that COVID cases have increased in Shenzhen and Macau, increased calls pointing to higher probabilities for a recession in the U.S., and a bevy of headlines pinpointing the specter of more rate hikes on the way from many of the world's leading central banks. The 2-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.22% and the 10-yr note yield is up five basis points to 3.29%. In corporate news:

  • Kellogg (K 73.25, +5.71, +8.5%): plans to separate into three independent companies: Global Snacking Co. with about $11.4 billion in net sales, North America Cereal Co. with about $2.4 billion in net sales, and Plant. Co. with about $340 million in net sales

  • Lennar (LEN 66.81, +2.18, +3.4%): beats by $0.74, beats on revs; For the full year, co will leave delivery expectations at approximately 68,000 homes and, at this time, will not provide updated guidance for other items

  • Mondelez (MDLZ 59.50, +0.70, +1.2%): acquires Clif Bar & Company for $2.9 bln

  • JetBlue (JBLU 8.70, +0.16, +1.9%): submits proposal to Board of Directors of Spirit (SAVE 23.16, +1.88, +8.8%) with increased offer of $33.50 per share in cash

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