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Market Rap 06/15/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures traded mostly sideways near yesterdays close 373.02 the after hours low before futures opened

377.37 the corresponding futures/pre mkt high so far as we look to test the upper end of yesterdays range

SPY 3 months, daily candles Searching for a short term bottom ahead of the Fed later today, testing levels last seen January '21 (support)

370.59 the low from yesterday

368.27 the low from the week of 1/25/21

364.82 the low from the week of 1/4/21 (resistance)

377.94 the high from yesterday

381.81 the high from Monday

389.75 open gap

396.57 the daily 12ema (white line)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Testing, starting to push over yesterdays highs currently in pre mkt action 275.52 the after hours low from yesterday, before futures opened

279.32 the pre mkt high so far

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Testing support going back to the fall of '20 (support) 273.34 the low from yesterday 266.97 the low from the week of 11/2/20 (resistance) 278.66 the high from yesterday 282.34 the Monday high before the first open gap at 288.38 294.57 the daily 12ema (white line)

July Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Some back off ahead of Powell - bull flag or massive vol crush ahead?

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Backed off against the May highs and seeing some easing, on watch for bull flag or a deeper vol crush as we see 2 days of inside bars. Watching 32ish low from today/yesterday, then 31.29 Monday low to the downside 32.77 the high from today to the upside

34 the high from yesterday

35.50 the high from Monday (36.64 the early May high) S&P futures vs fair value: +37.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +114.50.The S&P 500 futures are up 37 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 133 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 252 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value. Central bank news is dominating the wires.

  • The ECB is holding an emergency meeting to discuss fragmentation issues and presumably a response to cure them. Some see this as another "whatever it takes" moment, so European bonds and stocks have rallied on the news.

  • The FOMC completes its two-day meeting today. The market expects a 75-basis point rate hike. The policy directive and summary of economic projections will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and Fed Chair Powell's press conference will follow at 2:30 p.m. ET.

  • The Shadow Committee for the Bank of England reportedly expects a 50-basis point rate hike at Thursday's meeting against expectations for a more modest 25-basis point increase.

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe expects CPI to increase further and believes policy should respond to the CPI pressure in a decisive manner.

  • The Bank of Japan continues to adhere to a yield curve control policy.

The bounce in the futures trade isn't altogether surprising. The scope of recent losses is material. The S&P 500 is down 4.2% this week and down 10.4% from the intraday high it saw last Monday. The short-term oversold posture is fueling a belief that a rebound of some kind is in order. Furthermore, there is some chatter that the market will respond positively to a more aggressive rate-hike approach from the Fed that is aimed at killing inflation. That is debatable given that the market remained under pressure yesterday despite the understanding that the fed funds futures market had nearly fully priced in the likelihood of a 75-basis point rate hike at today's meeting. In any case, there has been a notable drop in Treasury yields this morning that is helping the rebound-minded tone. The 2-yr note yield is down 13 basis points to 3.30% and the 10-yr note yield is down 11 basis points to 3.37%. In corporate news:

  • L3Harris (LHX 225.00, -1.92, -0.9%): in discussions to purchase NSO Group, according to Reuter

  • Planet Labs (PL 4.68, -0.47, -9.1%): reports Q1 (Apr) results, beats on revs; guides JulQ revs in-line; guides FY23 revs in-line

  • Methode Electronics (MEI 39.94, -2.47, -5.8%): sees FY22 EPS below consensus; co sees FY23 EPS and revs below consensus

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