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Market Rap 06/13/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures briefly broke under the lows from 5/20 a few hours ago, currently back above by a tad; Setting up for a large gap down open with hourly/4hr/12hr RSI really beaten up in the short term. 379.81 the futures/pre mkt low

390.95 the after hours high from Friday

SPY 3 months, daily candles (and 3yr weekly candles for lower levels of support going back to Jan-March '21) Big gap down open (for buying?) setting up with shorter term RSI's like the hourly/4hr/12hr all very beaten up already. Set to open right around THE recent 5/20 lows, with the weekly chart needed to find levels of support if things cant bounce around here. (support)

389.75 the low from Friday - well under there for the big gap down open set up

380.54 the 5/20 low

371.88 the low from early March '21

364.82-368.27 from Jan '21 (resistance)

389.75 gap to open

395.78 the high from Friday

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures set to gap down open under the 5/20 lows, with shorter term RSI's up to the 12hr timeframe very oversold here also 278.94 the corresponding futures/pre mkt low

289.60 the after hours high from Friday

QQQ 3 months, daily candles (and 3yr weekly candles to find the next levels of support, going back to October '20) (support)

288.38 the low from Friday, set to open well under there for the big gap down open

280.21 the 5/20 recent low, also currently under that level

266.97 the weekly low from Nov '20 (resistance)

294.87 the high from Friday

June Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Massive move up here as the broad market tests/starts to break the recent lows. Heading up to test the highs from May, which took only 3 candles - following a few weeks of slower vol crush to end May/start June

Spot Vix 3months, daily candles Spot Vix angry as well - back above 30 and probing the higher levels from May with a 35%+ move in just 3 days

TLT 4hr candles, going back to the recent lows from early May Testing the 111.90 low from May 9th as rates surge

10 yr new highs

30 yr mortgage new highs

DXY recent high test Risk sentiment takes another hit 13-Jun-22 07:59 ET Market is Closed [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -92.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -391.80. The S&P 500 futures are down 94 points and are trading 2.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 370 points and are trading 3.3% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 612 points and are trading 1.8% below fair value. The stock market is set for a sharply lower open with follow-through selling from Friday's CPI-induced selloff. Worries about the Fed taking an even more aggressive rate-hike path have undercut risk sentiment along with a massive selloff in cryptocurrency markets, reports of renewed lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing, and a brief inversion of the 2s10s spread overnight. It all centers around growth concerns, however, which feed directly into concerns about earnings estimates being subject to large downward revisions. Foreign markets have traded lower in the wake of Wall Street's weakness, and amid their own growth concerns. Bitcoin is currently down 13.9% to $23,642.00, feeling the added pressure of crypto lender Celsius announcing that it is pausing all customer withdrawals and transfers due to "extreme market conditions." The 2-yr note yield is up 18 bps to 3.22%. The 10-yr note yield is up 11 bps to 3.27%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.7% to 104.82. WTI crude futures are down 1.6% to $118.70/bbl. In corporate news:

  • Tesla (TSLA 665.48, -31.21, -4.5%): Files for 3-for-1 stock split; RBC Capital Markets upgrades to Outperform from Sector Perform

  • Carnival Corp (CCL 10.58, -0.47, -4.3%): Wall Street Journal says cruise companies are lowering prices to fill boats with increase capacity limits for summer cruising

  • Choice Hotels (CHH 126.32, +6.01, +5.0%): to acquire Radisson Hotel Group for $675 million

"Wall Street continues to stress over surging levels of inflation as investors look towards the Federal Reserve’s rate decision this week for guidance. Market participants watched inflation top a 40-year high on Friday after May CPI Y/Y came in at +8.6% compared to the forecasted +8.2% and the +8.3% prior figure.

Bloomberg reported that money markets are now factoring in a 175-basis point rise by the Federal Reserve’s Sept. decision. The hike now indicates that two 50 basis point hikes and one 75 basis-point hike are cooked in, according to interest rate swaps tied to FOMC policy outcome dates.

The latest inflation print has now placed added pressure on Fed. Chairman Powell to react in a more aggressive way in order to curb the elevated levels of inflation.

Moreover, it's been nearly 30 years dating back to 1994 since the Fed hiked rates by 75 basis points."

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