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Market Rap 06/08/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures trading just above the lows from yesterday, after a break of those lows overnight that saw little follow thru 425.75 the corresponding futures low

427.21 the pre mkt high

SPY 3 months and 1yr daily candles Flirting with 1 year highs and seeing some initial defense from bears around those levels; they'll need to go on offense and push more meaningful consolidation though, if they're going to negate the daily bull flag look. Plenty of room for a "higher low" to be found, in the context of this daily uptrend, even if bears are able to see follow thru under the last few days of lows. (support)

425.99-426.11 the last couple days of lows


422.92 open gap

422.05 the daily 12ema(white)

416.22 the last daily "higher low" (resistance)

429.62 yesterdays high/Mondays high

431.73 the 8/16/22 1 year high

435-440ish next weekly volume profile resistance zone after that

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures broke the lows from yesterday overnight, but are currently trading back above those levels 347.20 the corresponding futures low

349.45 the pre mkt high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles More meaningful daily consolidation got underway yesterday on increasing volume, as the overbought RSI starts to cool off. (support)

348.18 the low from yesterday

346.58 the daily 12ema(white)

346.51 the last daily "higher low" and the spot for bulls to stay above to avoid losing the steep uptrend they've established over the past 6 weeks. (resistance)

357.12 the high from yesterday

357.50 the recent high

June Vix futures 3 months, daily candles The bleeding from the past couple weeks has paused, with a doji candle yesterday/today so far, just above Mondays low. Breaking above 15.85-16 area would get the daily bounce going. How high that bounce gets can then help us judge if it's just a bear flag, or a meaningful low.

Spot Vix 3 months daily candles Hanging out near 3 year lows and trying to hold above yesterdays low; Needs to break 14.29 with some follow thru, to see a daily bounce get going. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 1 point and are trading in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 15 points and are trading slightly below fair value. There's not a lot of conviction in premarket action, again. Market participants continue to play a waiting game ahead of the May Consumer Price Index and Fed decision next week. Labor issues at West Coast ports are causing vessel buildup and are leading to a breakdown in the supply chain, according to CNBC. The Reserve Bank of India left its key policy rates unchanged, as expected. Four large Chinese banks cut their yuan deposit rates and there was speculation that the People's Bank of China will lower its loan prime rate soon. Market participants will receive the weekly initial ( consensus 237,000; prior 232,000) and continuing (prior 1.795 million) jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET. Other economic data today includes:

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: April Wholesale Inventories ( consensus -0.2%; prior 0.0%)

  • 10:30 a.m. ET: Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories (prior +110 bcf)

Treasury yields are moving somewhat higher. The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.56% and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 3.81%. In corporate news:

  • GameStop (GME 20.38, -5.73, -22.0%): beats by $0.01, misses on revs; former CEO terminated, Ryan Cohen named as Executive Chairman

  • Greif (GEF 66.00, +1.78, +2.8%): beats by $0.45, misses on revs

  • Smartsheet (SMAR 40.76, -8.24, -16.8%): beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • HashiCorp (HCP 26.89, -7.88, -22.7%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides JulQ EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; cuts workforce by 8%

  • Oxford Industries (OXM 101.90, -5.31, -5.0%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Semtech (SMTC 27.40, +4.67, +22.2%): beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Las Vegas Sands (LVS 57.45, -1.04, -1.8%) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN 101.02, -2.24, -2.2%): Jefferies downgraded to Hold from Buy

  • Carrier Global (CARR 44.11, -1.49, -3.3%): downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley

  • (AMZN 122.30, +1.07, +0.9%): Wells Fargo initiated coverage with an Overweight rating

  • Signet Jewelers (SIG 62.01, -7.51, -10.8%): beats by $0.29, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs below consensus; lowers FY24 guidance; Q1 comps -13.9%

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