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Market Rap 06/01/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures trading sideways in the middle of yesterdays range 415.20 the corresponding futures high

412.05 the after hours low from yesterday, before futures opened

SPY 3 months, daily candles Indecision candle yesterday as this recent move gets digested and we approach some chunkier volume profile overhead. Daily uptrend/weekly downtrend in play. Holding above the 12ema (white line) when any daily consolidation begins will keep the bulls most comfortable; Plenty of room for a "higher low" anywhere above 386.96 if that 12ema cant hold. (resistance)

416.46 the high from yesterday

419ish heavier volume profile comes into play

425 the high from 5/5

425.91 the 50 day MA (blue line)

429.66 after that (support)

410.03 the low from yesterday

407.70 next

407.04 small open gap

403.73 the daily 12ema

398.45 after that

386.96 the most recent "higher low" with bulls looking to stay anywhere above that level once daily consolidation begins

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also trading sideways in yesterdays range 310 the corresponding futures high

306.86 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Similar look here to the S&P, as this recent up move cools down. Daily uptrend/weekly downtrend in play. (resistance)

311.33 the high from yesterday

315.09 next

325.25 the 5/5 high

327.65 the 50 day MA

330.29 after that (support)

304.33 the low from yesterday


300.92 open gap

300.04 the 12ema (white line)

290.15 the 5/26 low

282.25 the most recent daily "higher low" where bulls will look to stay anywhere above once daily consolidation begins

June Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Vol crush continues, after testing Fridays highs right after the regular session open yesterday, when the broad indices sold off to start the day. 25.83 and 24.03 the next major levels.

Spot Vix 3months, daily candles Still refusing to break under the May lows so far

10 yr continued to rise over night


RBOB new high Riding the coattails of Salesforce 01-Jun-22 08:01 ET Market is Closed [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +12.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +32.20. The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 33 points and are trading 0.3 % above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 161 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The major indices appear poised for a modestly higher start thanks in large part to a big move in shares of Dow component Salesforce, Inc. (CRM), which raised its FY23 profit outlook. Relatively good earnings news from Victoria's Secret (VSCO) and Capri Holdings (CPRI) has also been supportive along with an uptick in shares of Meta Platforms (FB), which are responding to the news that the Supreme Court blocked a Texas law that would have banned social media companies from removing certain posts. Still, there is some reservation in the air as market participants digest Atlanta Fed President Bostic's remark that his prior comments pertaining to a possible "pause" in September should not be interpreted as being a Fed put. On a somewhat related note, Treasury Secretary Yellen acknowledged that inflation is too high; meanwhile, WTI crude futures ($115.93, +1.26, +1.1%) are again pushing higher after testing $120.00/bbl yesterday. The Fed begins its balance sheet runoff program today amid the release of some key economic releases that include the April JOLTS - Job Openings Report and the May ISM Manufacturing Index. The 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 2.88% and the 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 2.59%. In corporate news:

  • Salesforce, Inc. (CRM 174.45, +14.21, +8.9%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; raises FY23 EPS guidance above consensus, raises non-GAAP operating margin guidance, lowers revenue guidance below consensus

  • Ambarella (AMBA 80.40, -4.82, -5.7%): beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides JulQ revs below consensus

  • HP, Inc. (HPQ 39.10, +0.26, +0.7%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides JulQ EPS mostly above consensus; guides FY22 EPS mostly above consensus

  • Victoria's Secret (VSCO 45.00, +3.79, +9.2%): beats by $0.27, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revenue in-line

  • Meta Platforms (FB 194.59, +0.95, +0.5%): Supreme Court blocks Texas law that would ban social media companies from removing certain posts, but it could soon return to the Supreme Court, according to New York Times

  • Shanghai's lockdown reportedly ended today.

  • Moody's noted that easing measures in China have not translated into higher property sales yet. "The beginning of so-called quantitative tightening commences today as the Fed lets bonds mature off its $9T balance sheet without replacement. It's a big step for a central bank that conducted unprecedented bond purchases from March 2020 to March 2022, which were intended to blunt the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. The pullback comes at a time when the Treasury market is already grappling with periods of volatility and low liquidity, and there are many unanswered questions about the effects of the new policy regime.

  • Snapshot: Yields should technically move higher in response to QT, while the curve should steepen, due to a tightening of financial conditions and money supply. However, the direction of yields is also highly dependent on other economic factors, like expectations of Fed interest rate hikes, the U.S. economic outlook or greater regulatory constraints. Others feel that any outsized impacts will rather show up in money markets or financial market plumbing, or that effects on liquidity are at least a few quarters away."

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