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Market Rap 05/25/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures powered back over yesterdays RTH highs following the positive NVDA earnings reaction 414.27 the pre mkt high

410.80 the after hours low from yesterday pre-NVDA earnings

SPY 3 months, daily candles Tested the last "higher low" area / and the sideways range it broke out from to end last week; after gapping down below the 12ema(white). Currently shaping up to gap back up to that 12ema. Bulls hoping yesterdays low proves to be the next daily "higher low"; and that the action will resemble what happened on 4/26-4/27,5/4-5/5.

Bears hoping this oversold hourly/4hr bounce fizzles out after the open; but will have some work to do to get things back to yesterdays lows, to put pressure back on bulls again.


412.82 the high from yesterday - trading above there currently for the gap up open

414.05 that daily 12ema, trading right around there currently



409.88 the low from yesterday

408.64-409.07 the lows from the last couple weeks

407.92 the 50 day MA(blue)

407.27 open gap

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also saw a massive move and reversal of the past 2 days of weakness following that wild NVDA reaction 338.91 the pre mkt high

331.34 the after hours low from yesterday afternoon just before NVDA reported

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Doji candle yesterday off the 12ema(white) as bulls are looking for yesterdays low to set the next daily "higher low" in this uptrend, and confirm a bullish reversal off said doji. (resistance)

332.91 the high from yesterday - trading well above there currently and back up over that

338.67 RTH high from Monday

339.35 was the corresponding futures high from Monday evening - the last recent level before we push into highs last seen in April of '22

347.87 the weekly high from 4/18/22 (support)

330.35 that daily 12ema

329.56 the low from yesterday

June Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Reversing about 2/3rd's of yesterday big move. Inside bar day so far - 19.95 the low from yesterday, 21.25 the high.

(20.30 the low so far today, trading just above there currently)

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Yesterdays big move over the 20 level saw follow thru, and ultimately topped out just under the highs from 5/4 (21.33 the 5/4 high, 20.81 yesterdays high). Back under that 20 level now, and testing yesterdays lower end currently. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +29.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +287.00.The S&P 500 futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 287 points and are trading 2.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 66 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. A huge gain in NVIDIA (NVDA) after the company beat earnings estimates and raised guidance, along with other semiconductor stocks trading higher in solidarity, has driven the outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures. Meanwhile, debt ceiling uncertainty has kept the broader market in check. Angst around the debt ceiling has escalated after Fitch Ratings put the nation's AAA rating on "watch negative." Also, Congressional members will leave Washington for Memorial Day, but will return to vote on legislation if a debt ceiling deal is reached, according to The Hill. Fitch's action has fueled selling in the Treasury market. The 2-yr note yield is up seven basis points to 4.41% and the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.75%. Elsewhere, Germany's Q1 GDP was revised to show a contraction of 0.3% after a 0.4% contraction in Q4, meeting the technical definition of recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. That has renewed underlying concerns about global growth. Market participants will receive the second estimate for Q1 GDP ( consensus 1.1%; prior 1.1%), along with weekly initial jobless claims ( consensus 247,000; prior 242,000), today at 8:30 a.m. ET. In corporate news:

  • NVIDIA (NVDA 388.17, +82.75, +27.1%): beats by $0.17, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs far above consensus

  • Snowflake (SNOW 153.54, -23.60, -13.3%): beats by $0.10, beats on revs; Sees Q2 product revenue of $620-$625 mln

  • Splunk (SPLK 105.43, +8.74, +9.0%): beats by $0.30, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus; guides FY24 revs in-line

  • American Eagle (AEO 9.80, -2.27, -18.8%): reports EPS in-line, beats on revs, guides JulQ revenue growth below consensus

  • Best Buy (BBY 72.75, +3.60, +5.2%): beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance, revs guidance

  • Carnival (CCL 10.91, +0.24, +2.3%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup

  • e.l.f. Beauty (ELF 95.28, +8.83, +10.2%): beats by $0.22, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Digital Turbine (APPS 9.84, -4.59, -31.8%): misses by $0.04, misses on revs; guides JunQ EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Medtronic (MDT 85.91, -1.58, -1.8%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; lowers FY23 EPS below consensus; to acquire wearable insulin patch maker EOFlow

  • MetLife (MET 51.04, +0.79, +1.6%): announces $19.2 billion risk transfer transaction; further increases share repurchase authorization to $4 billion - to host call at 9 a.m. ET

  • Verizon (VZ 35.77, -0.10, -0.3%): warned customer service employees of layoffs, according to The Verge

  • Dollar Tree (DLTR 139.99, -15.36, -9.9%): misses by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

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