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Market Rap 05/25/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures pulling back into the middle of yesterdays range 396.54 the corresponding futures high

391.39 the corresponding futures/pre mkt low so far

SPY 3 months, daily candles Daily bounce saw no follow thru yesterday, stopping short ahead of the 12ema (white line) which has rejected any bounces over the past couple months in the context of daily/weekly/monthly downtrends (support)

386.96 the low from yesterday

380.54 last Fridays low (resistance)

395.15 the high from yesterday

397.73 the Tues high, and new daily "lower high"

398.85 that 12ema on this timeframe

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also pulling back to the middle of yesterdays range 289.80 the corresponding futures high

284.70 the corresponding futures/pre mkt low so far

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Tested Fridays lows yesterday and held up on the first pass; Go back down there again and the probabilities increase that they don't hold, as the downtrends on multiple timeframes continue (support)

282.25 the low from yesterday

290.21 Friday's low

266.97 weekly support from early Nov '20 (resistance)

288.86 the high from yesterday

293.87-294.39 recent highs

297.02 the 12ema (white line) which has rejected bounce attempts for the past couple months

June Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Hanging out in the middle of the recent wide range, as the broad market debates if it wants to attempt a more sustainable bounce, or flush lower to the next levels of support

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Sticking tight to that 30 psychological level; So far any pushes above or below haven't lasted long.

10 Yr backed off to the low since the highs put in earlier in the month


Buyers lacking conviction 25-May-22 08:00 ET Market is Closed [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -11.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -66.60. The S&P 500 futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 65 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 126 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Buyers continue to lack much conviction as growth concerns persist. Fresh reminders today include reports that Russia is stepping up its military effort in eastern Ukraine, that Beijing continues to wrestle with curbs on activity to try to stop the spread of Covid, ECB member Knot touting the possibility of a 50 basis point rate hike in July, the weekly mortgage applications report showing no growth in purchase applications, and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)issuing an FY23 EPS outlook that is well below expectations to account for the impact of "evolving macroeconomic conditions." We'll hear more about those evolving conditions and how the Fed was considering them at the May 3-4 FOMC meeting when the minutes from that meeting are released today at 2:00 p.m. ET. The 10-yr note is down three basis points to 2.73%. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 2.50%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.5% to 102.33. WTI crude futures are up 1.1% to $110.95/bbl. In U.S. Corporate news:

  • Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS 58.64, -12.60, -17.7%): beats by $0.32, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS well below consensus to reflect impact of "evolving macroeconomic conditions"

  • Toll Brothers (TOL 46.24, +1.70, +3.8%): beats by $0.23, beats on revs; expects JulQ deliveries of 2,750 units; expects FY22 deliveries of 11,000-11,500 units; authorized approximately $900 mln for share buybacks

  • Wendy's (WEN 17.72, +1.45, +8.9%): Trian Fund filing saying it intends to explore and evaluate potential transactions with company to enhance shareholder value

  • Nordstrom (JWN 21.35, +0.67, +3.2%): misses by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; authorizes a new $500 mln share repurchase program

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