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Market Rap 05/17/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures recovered most of yesterdays late day drop 412.01 the pre mkt high

410.30 the corresponding futures low

SPY 3 months, daily candles Another inside bar day, as this sideways range continues to tighten and coil. Awaiting the direction of that break soon, should be powerful after all this sideways action. (support)

410.23-410.24 the low(s) from the past 2 days

408.64-409.07

407.27 open gap

405.01 the 50 day MA(blue)

403.74 (resistance)

412.82 the high from yesterday

413.43-413.64

414.54-414.82

415.27 small open gap

417.62

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures trading relatively muted, recovered about half of yesterdays late day drop 327.04 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened

328.15 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles The slow grind to higher highs/1year highs last seen in Aug '22 continued. (resistance)

328.90 the high from yesterday

330.49-331.43

334.42 (support)

326.02 the low from yesterday

323.35 the daily 12ema(white)

322.94

321.32

318ish the biggest chunk of volume profile support


June Vix futures 3 months, daily candles A couple days of inside bars to start the week so far, as it meanders around its recent lows

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Attempt(s) to push over that recent 18.31 high have been resisted so far. A bit of an inverted head and shoulders look on the daily here.

Would need to push over that 18.31 with some follow thru to confirm; then the next levels of interest are found at the 19.35 50 day MA(blue), 19.63, 20 psychological, and the 21.33 May high

TLT 3 months, daily candles Bending lower, but so far avoiding any bigger breaks to the downside out of the recent range; after filling the 3/9-3/10 "gap" yesterday, then reversing somewhat

$DXY 3 months, daily candles The recent dollar bounce/strength is seeing some continuation today

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +15.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +29.00.The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 130 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. Stock futures have been sporting a positive disposition so far this morning. Some optimism about the debt ceiling talks along with Western Alliance's (WAL) encouraging deposit growth update seem to be overshadowing lingering worries about economic growth after Target (TGT) indicated that sales trends softened in the first quarter. Treasuries are little changed from yesterday's settlement levels. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.07% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.51%. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 5.7% with purchase applications declining 4.8% and refinancing applications dropping 8.0%. Other economic data today includes:

  • 8:30 ET: April Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1.405 mln; prior 1.420 mln) and Building Permits (Briefing.com consensus 1.438 mln; prior 1.413 mln)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior +2.95 mln)

In corporate news:

  • Target (TGT 156.75, -0.16, -0.1%): beats by $0.26, misses on revs; guides Q2 EPS below consensus; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance

  • Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL 34.86, +3.27, +10.4%): in 2Q23 Investor Update slides: deposits stabilized by March 20 and resumed growth trajectory; QTD deposit growth exceeded $2.0 bln as of May 12

  • Keysight (KEYS 158.54, +12.02, +8.2%): beats by $0.17, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Wynn Resorts (WYNN 106.00, +2.95, +2.9%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays

  • Tesla (TSLA 169.08, +2.56, +1.5%): at yesterday's share holder meeting, CEO Elon Musk teases "two new products"

  • TJX (TJX 77.15, -1.07, -1.4%): beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus; lowers top end of FY24 EPS below consensus; Q1 comps +3%

  • Doximity (DOCS 30.62, -3.25, -9.6%): beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides JunQ revs below consensus; guides FY24 (Mar) revs in-line


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