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Market Rap 05/16/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

S&P futures tightening up in the middle of Friday's range 398.35 the corresponding futures low

403.80 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Daily bounce continuation on Friday as we head up to test the area things broke down from, the daily 12ema, etc. Watching for the next daily "lower high" within the context of the downtrend. (resistance)

403.18 the high from Friday

406.41 after that

407.72 the daily 12ema (white line)

414.80 after that

420ish some heavier volume profile resistance

Looking for a daily "lower high" anywhere below 429.66 (support)

395.61 the low from Friday

385.15 the recent low

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also trading sideways within Fridays RTH range 298.40 the corresponding futures low

304.50ish the corresponding futures high

Daily bounce continuation on Friday here as well, looking to test the 12ema and daily "lower high" area after that if bulls can see some follow thru this week (resistance)

303 the high from Friday

305.76 after that

307.80 the daily 12ema

315.09 next

325.25 after that

330.29 the last daily "lower high" (support)

294.08 the low from Friday

284.94 the recent low

June Vix futures 3months, daily candles

(May Vix contract expires on Tues) Hanging out around Fridays lows with some indecision on direction so far today; If broad market bulls can keep the bear market bounce going, this will crush further from elevated levels

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Hanging out just under the 30 psychological area, and in the middle of the recent range from the past month; Still extremely elevated, so wide ranges and moves both directions will be the norm.

BTC daily

testing bottom of channel

10 yr 5 min

DXY weekly

1997, 2014/15 only time RSI has been hotter

30 yr mortgage rates higher highs Futures edge lower to begin the week 16-May-22 07:56 ET Market is Closed [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -9.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -63.80. The S&P 500 futures trade ten points, or 0.2%, below fair value to start the week, cooling off from a strong session last Friday. Lingering growth concerns might be restraining follow-through buying interest this morning. Growth concerns have been reinforced by China reporting weaker-than-expected retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset management data for April; India reportedly banning wheat exports over the weekend, threatening to exacerbate food shortages and rising commodity prices; and the EC lowering its 2022 growth outlook for the eurozone to 2.7% from 4.0%. Shanghai, to be fair, will reportedly conduct a phased reopening of businesses, starting Monday. Oil prices, though, are down 1.2% to $109.11/bbl while wheat futures are up 4.3% to $12.28/bushel. The 10-yr yield, which is sensitive to growth expectations, is currently down two basis points to 2.92%. The 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 2.60%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 104.44. Today's economic data will be limited to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for May ( consensus 15.0) at 8:30 a.m. ET and Net Long-term TIC Flows for March at 4:00 p.m. ET. In U.S. Corporate news:

  • Spirit Airlines (SAVE 19.60, +2.62): +15.4% after starting a hostile all-cash takeover bid for the company, according to CNBC. JetBlue urged Spirit shareholders to reject the Frontier transaction at their upcoming special meeting.

  • (WIX 63.58, -7.61): -10.7% after missing EPS estimates and guiding Q2 and FY22 revenue below consensus.

  • Warby Parker (WRBY 17.00, -0.44): -2.5% after missing EPS estimates and reaffirming its in-line FY22 revenue guidance.

  • Nucor (NUE 123.01, -0.78): -0.6% after agreeing to acquire C.H.I. Overhead Doors from KKR (KKR 51.00, -0.57, -1.1%). The transaction is worth $3.0 billion.

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.3%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3%, India's Sensex: +0.3%, South Korea's Kospi: -0.3%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%.

  • In economic data:

  • China's April Retail Sales -11.1% yr/yr (expected -6.1%; last -3.5%), April Industrial Production -2.9% yr/yr (expected 0.4%; last 5.0%), April Fixed Asset Investment 6.8% yr/yr (expected 7.0%; last 9.3%), and April Unemployment Rate 6.1% (last 5.8%)

  • Japan's April PPI 1.2% m/m (expected 0.8%; last 0.9%); 10.0% yr/yr (expected 9.4%; last 9.7%). April Machine Tool Orders 25.0% yr/yr (last 30.2%)

  • South Korea's April trade deficit $2.50 bln (last deficit of $2.66 bln). April Imports 18.6% yr/yr (last 18.6%) and Exports 12.9% (last 12.6%)

  • In the news:

  • China reported weaker than expected economic figures for April, reflecting the impact of strict coronavirus restrictions.

  • Shanghai's vice mayor reportedly indicated that businesses in his city are reopening gradually.

  • Japan's PPI was up 10.0% yr/yr in April, representing the sharpest growth rate since late 1980.

  • South Korea's President Yoon acknowledged the impact of inflation and higher interest rates when speaking about the government's planned extra budget of KRW59.4 trln.

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