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Market Rap 05/12/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke yesterdays lows, hourly and 4hr RSI still have room for more selling before they're oversold, as the market resists the big gap down open again 388.81 the corresponding futures/pre mkt low so far

395 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Lower lows for the last 5 days in a row, as the downtrends continue and we inch closer to daily oversold conditions (support)

391.96 the low from yesterday, small gap down open shaping up currently - zooming out to the weekly chart next to look for lower levels of support (resistance)


SPY 3 year, weekly candles Weekly downtrend continues as the weekly RSI inches closer to oversold conditions, testing levels last seen early in '21 (support)

383.90 from March '21

371.88 after that (resistance)


QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also broke yesterdays lows, closer to hourly oversold conditions and the 4hr RSI is also currently oversold again 287.19 the corresponding futures/pre mkt low so far

294.64 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3months, daily candles Daily downtrend continues as we inch closer to daily oversold; Volume picking up but mostly controlled selling so far, as little bear flag bounces along the way keep cooling off the RSI. Zooming out to the weekly next to find the next levels of support from the fall of 2020 290.95 the low from yesterday, trading under there now for the gap down open set up (resistance)

304.09-305.76 the highs from the past few days

QQQ 3 year, weekly candles Weekly downtrend continues as volume increases and the RSI clicks into oversold territory (support)

288.07 from late Nov '20 getting lost here in pre mkt

280.62 next from early Nov '20

266.97 after that, from late October of '20 during the pre-election sell off

260.11 from Sept '20 the next major level (resistance)


May Vix futures 3months, daily candles Daily bull flag look currently, heading up to test the highs from Tuesday

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Still under the highs seen 5/2 (36.64)

and from late Feb/early March (37.52-37.79) as the sell off in the broad market indices continues in a relatively controlled manner. Selling velocity and ranges would need to widen from here to see us pop into the 40s

Vix futures curve has been in backwardation (front months higher than back months) but generally the front end of the curve will see a much steeper angle when these sell offs get into their final phase

10 yr backed off more

% of stocks above the 200day new recent low

put to call ratio not as elevated as you'd think

DXY breaking out



BTC -25% on the week after a -17% last week

SPY weekly broke the TL, the channel, approaching the covid low AVWAP

QQQ weekly channel fall out

approaching the 2018 low AVWAP

ARKK all time weekly new lows pm Futures extend losses ahead of PPI report 12-May-22 07:59 ET Market is Closed [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -25.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -120.30. The S&P 500 futures trade 26 points, or 0.7%, below fair value in a carryover of selling momentum, particularly in the mega-cap stocks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures underperform and trade 1.0% below fair value. The futures market continues to grapple with growth concerns attributed in part to the Fed's aggressive tightening plans in the face of slowing economic growth and high inflation. After a relatively disappointing April CPI report yesterday, investors will see what producer inflation was in April. Specifically, the Producer Price Index for April ( consensus 0.5%) will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET alongside the weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 191,000) and Continuing Claims report. There is renewed hope that inflation rates could be peaking, which could be driving another eight-basis-point decline in the 10-yr yield to 2.84%. At the same time, though, growth concerns and some safe-haven positioning could be in the mix, too. The 2-yr yield is down five basis points to 2.59%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.6% to 104.44. WTI crude futures are down 1.4%, or $1.50, to $104.21/bbl. Separately, shares of Walt Disney (DIS 100.85, -4.36, -4.1%) are down 4% in pre-market action after the Dow component missed top and bottom-line estimates and reaffirmed expectations of reaching 230-260 million Disney+ subscribers by FY24. In U.S. Corporate news:

  • Walt Disney (DIS 100.85, -4.36): -4.1% after missing top and bottom-line estimates. The company reaffirmed expectations of reaching 230-260 mln Disney+ subscribers by FY24.

  • Bumble (BMBL 19.36, +1.73): +9.8% after beating top and bottom-line estimates, although it did guide Q2 revenue below consensus.

  • Beyond Meat (BYND 18.96, -7.21): -27.6% after missing top and bottom-line estimates.

  • Dutch Bros (BROS 21.13, -13.24): -38.5% after missing EPS estimates on above-consensus revenue. The company reportedly lowered its adjusted EBITDA forecast, but it reaffirmed its FY22 revenue guidance.

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