Market Rap 05/11/22 by CTG
SPY / QQQ / Vix
S&P futures testing the upper end of yesterdays range ahead of the CPI report at 8:30 et (8.1% the est) 404.54 the corresponding futures/pre mkt high
398.21 the corresponding futures low
SPY 3 months, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles Daily and weekly downtrends in play, whenever we see the next bounce attempt anything under 429.66 is just the next daily "lower high" and keeps the downtrend intact (support)
394.82 the low from yesterday
381.42-383.90 from March '21
371.88 after that, also from March '21 (resistance)
415.27 the 12ema (white line)
429.66 the last daily "lower high"
434.33 the 50 day MA
QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also testing yesterdays highs ahead of the CPI report 305.86 the corresponding futures/pre mkt high
300.10 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened
QQQ 3 months, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles Daily and weekly downtrends in play as we inch closer to daily, weekly oversold RSI conditions. Whenever the daily bounce gets underway, anything under 330.29 keeps the downtrend intact (support)
295.72-296.57 the lows from the last 2 days
305.76 yesterdays high
315.77 the daily 12ema
325.25 after that
330.29 the last daily "lower high"
338.49 the 50 day MA
Muted action yesterday, peeking a bit under yesterdays lows today so far ahead of the CPI report. Extremely elevated levels of vol are hard to maintain unless the ranges stay as wide as they've been, and need to expand for vol to take the next leg higher
Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Also resisting any upside follow thru over Feb/March highs so far, but if the broad market takes the next leg lower quickly it's hanging out near those highs, and above 30. Big ranges/moves both directions should be expected.
Futures rise in front of CPI data 11-May-22 07:58 ET Market is Closed [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +55.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +194.30. The S&P 500 futures are up nicely, trading 55 points, or 1.4%, above fair value in front of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Briefing.com consensus is projecting a modest 0.2% increase for total CPI and a 0.4% increase for core CPI, which excludes food and energy. Based on the positive bias in the futures market, and a sharp decline in Treasury yields, the market might be suspecting a relatively good inflation report that tempers rate-hike expectations. The 2-yr yield is down five basis points to 2.58%, and the 10-yr yield is down seven basis points to 2.92%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 103.60. WTI crude futures are up 4.1%, or $4.06, to $103.83/bbl amid news that Shanghai has reported no community spread of COVID-19, according to Bloomberg. Investors will also receive the Treasury Budget for April at 2:00 p.m. ET. Earlier, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 2.0% following a 2.5% increase in the prior week. Again, not all remains good in the growth-stock space. Coinbase (COIN 62.43, -10.56, -14.5%), Unity Software (U 38.21, -9.92, -20.6%), and Allbirds (BIRD 3.84, -0.68, -15.0%) are each down sharply in pre-market action following their disappointing earnings reports and/or guidance. In other developments, the Senate confirmed Lisa Cook to the Fed Board, and the House passed a bill to provide $40 billion in aid for Ukraine, sending it to the Senate where it is expected to pass later this week. In U.S. Corporate news:
Coinbase Global (COIN 62.43, -10.56): -14.5% after missing top and bottom-line estimates and noting that retail MTU and total Trading Volume will be lower in 2Q22 compared to 1Q22.
Unity Software (U 38.21, -9.92): -20.6% after guiding revenue for Q2 and FY22 below consensus. Q1 results were in-line with expectations.
Allbirds (BIRD 3.84, -0.68): -15.0% after missing EPS estimates and guiding revenue for Q2 and FY22 below consensus.
Roblox (RBLX 22.73, -0.46): -2.0% after missing bookings estimates.
Wynn Resorts (WYNN 62.37, +0.72): +1.2% after observing that the positive momentum in Las Vegas has continued into Q2. WYNN missed top and bottom-line estimates.
US Apr Consumer Prices +0.3%; Consensus +0.2%*US Apr CPI Ex-Food & Energy +0.6%; Consensus +0.4%*US Apr Consumer Prices Increase 8.3% From Year Earlier; Core CPI Up 6.2% Over Year 10 yr spike